Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
After managing to stay ‘under’ last night despite a ninth-inning rally forcing extra innings, look for another relatively low scoring game Tuesday night north of the border when Rubby De La Rosa and the Boston Red Sox (57-74, 28-34 away) again pay a visit to fellow righty R.A. Dickey and the Toronto Blue Jays (66-65, 34-29 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET in a game available on NESN.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +103.
Blow to Toronto Playoff Chances
The Red Sox may be in last place in the American League East, but they dealt a tough blow to Toronto’s playoff chances last night by overcoming a three-run Blue Jays’ rally in the ninth inning to win 4-3 in 10 innings. That was good news for us as we managed to cash our ‘under’ ticket. It was bad news for the Blue Jays though as they missed a chance to pick up a game and remain 5½ behind the Seattle Mariners, who lost Monday, for the last wild card spot.
The Red Sox may be the reigning World Series Champions, but they have been the worst MLB picks in the division this year and trail the first place Baltimore Orioles by 18 games. They did snap an eight-game losing streak last night once they got away from their Fenway Park home though and that actually marked their fourth straight win on the road after winning the last three games of their last road trip prior to their 1-9 home stand.
Dickey Tough vs. Boston
Dickey will never match his Cy Young Award season with the New York Mets in 2012 and he is now just 10-12 with a 4.08 ERA this year after allowing five runs in 5.2 innings at Milwaukee last time out. However, Dickey had allowed two runs or less in three of his prior four starts and he has had success vs. these Red Sox this year.
Dickey held Boston to one run on just three hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 28th and that marked the second time in three starts vs. the Red Sox this year that he allowed exactly one run after doing so while allowing five hits in 6.1 innings with six strikeouts and not a single walk here in Toronto back in April.
He is facing a Boston lineup that is batting just .225 vs. right-handed pitchers overall on the road this season while averaging only 3.58 runs per nine innings against them.
De La Rosa Quietly Effective
Meanwhile De La Rosa has been quietly effective for the Red Sox despite his 4-5 record. Rubby pitched well enough to win vs. the Los Angeles Angels last time out when he allowed two runs in 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, but instead took a 2-0 loss. That leaves De La Rosa with a nice 3.69 ERA overall and he has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts with seven official Quality Starts in this current span.
He now gets to face a slumping Toronto offense that is averaging only 3.50 runs per game over the last 10 contests, and the frustration is starting to get to Jose Bautista, who was ejected from a game a couple of days ago and saw his slump extend to 0-for-13 while going hitless on Monday.
Red Sox Going ‘under’ on Road
Also, going ‘under’ on the road is starting to become the norm for the Red Sox as it is now 9-2 in their last 11 road contests, and all Boston road games are now averaging just a combined 7.95 runs this season.
Look for more of the same with a second ‘under’ in Canada in as many nights on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Red Sox, Blue Jays ‘under’ 8½ (+103)