MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks ‘under’ 8½

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 29, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

The ‘under’ is now 17-8 in all Diamondbacks games this season including a current 5-0 run, and with Ian Kennedy facing Matt Cain of the Giants, look for that pattern to continue Monday.

Look for a lower scoring game than the total would indicate on Monday night when Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants (13-12, 5-8 away) pay a visit to Ian Kennedy and the Arizona Diamondbacks (15-10, 8-5 home) as the teams open up a three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

The Diamondbacks are one of the better ‘under’ teams in baseball right now at 17-8 overall and 9-4 at home, and yet this total tonight again seems inflated with the two staff aces on the mound, although that may have a lot to do with neither pitcher having ace-like numbers so far.

Still, both Kennedy and Cain are simply too good to have the overall numbers they currently do and it is just a matter of time before they regress to their career norms. That regression appears to have already started for Kennedy, and furthermore he has had great success against the Giants since coming over to the National League from the New York Yankees.

Kennedy had a rough spring training that carried over into his first few starts this year, currently leaving him at 1-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. However, he has gotten progressively better with each passing outing and he has now recorded back-to-back Quality Starts with the most recent coming against these Giants on Wednesday, when he allowed only one run and four hits in six innings while getting no decision in a game Arizona won 3-2 in 10 innings.

Remember that Kennedy won 15 games for the Diamondbacks last season after going 21-4 and getting some Cy Young Award consideration in 2011, and he appears to be heading in the right direction. He also wishes that he could face the Giants in every start!

Kennedy has made 14 career starts vs. the Giants and he is 6-2 with a spiffy 2.33 ERA and 1.02 WHIP against them with 85 strikeouts against 29 walks in 96.2 innings while limiting San Francisco batters to a .202 batting average. He is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his last eight starts vs. the Giants with Arizona as a team going 8-0 in those starts.

Cain has been the bigger disappointment so far, as he merited Cy Young consideration last season while going 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 193 strikeouts against just 51 walks in 219.1 innings, not to mention hurling a Perfect Game. However, he is off to an 0-2 start in 2013 with a bloated 6.69 ERA, and he has already had two starts where he allowed seven earned runs or more.

That will not continue much longer as Cain still has a fine 1.26 WHIP and 26 strikeouts vs. only six walks in 28.2 innings, and he actually got credit for a Quality Start vs. these Diamondbacks last Tuesday as only three of the four runs he allowed in six innings were earned and he had six strikeouts against one walk.

Cain went 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in four starts vs. the Diamondbacks last season with 20 strikeouts in 24 innings, so look for his regression to begin tonight. With both pitchers figuring to return to normalcy, look for yet another Arizona ‘under’ on Monday.

[gameodds]3/225823/93-238-19-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Giants, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 8½ (-120)