MLB Pick: Salazar & Santana to Keep Indians-Twins Total Low

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 11:48 AM GMT

Good matchup today of American League wildcard contenders in major league baseball in Minnesota. I'm going to back under the total when these two teams meet and what I think is an underrated pitching matchup. This is a very meaningful game for both of these teams.

Today's MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with this line at eight and I think it is just a little bit too high. You can still get pretty good odds right now at Pinnacle Sports at under the total of eight at -105. For my under the total MLB pick of the day I like for both of these pitchers to produce quality starts.

Cleveland Indians
Danny Salazar takes the mound for Cleveland and comes in with a 3.48 ERA, 1.12 whip, 182 strikeouts, and a 13-8 record. It seems like he is starting to come into his prime and he has pitched extremely well this season. In his last 10 games he has only had one rough outing which was in Detroit, one of the best hitting teams in major league baseball, allowing six runs in just over three innings. Except for that outing in his other nine games he has been exceptional, and in his last two games he has allowed just four earned runs in 13 innings against two of the American League's best hitting teams in Detroit and Kansas City. He has actually had a brutal schedule in his last seven games pitching against the Yankees twice, Detroit twice, and also Boston, Toronto, and Kansas City. That is a really tough slate of consecutive games but he has come out and pitched well in all them except for the one in Detroit, and in another he was a little shaky in one game in New York.

Cleveland ranks 18th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.17 14th in OPS at .725, and 10th in batting average hitting .258 as a team. They are your typical good home hitting bad road hitting team averaging less than four runs per game when they travel, an OPS under .700, and their batting average drops from .275 at home to .241 on the road.

 

Minnesota Twins
Ervin Santana gets the start for Minnesota and comes in with a 4.55 ERA, 1.37 whip, 67 strikeouts, and a 5-4 record. He is in a good bounce back spot today against the Indians allowing eight earned runs in just two innings off a 10 hits the last time he faced them. Also, he has been really solid in his last four starts allowing just four total earned runs in 29 innings. At home he has not pitched well with a 5.76 ERA and batters hitting almost .291 against him. He does have some momentum going into this game though so look for him to turn those averages around and have a solid home start.

Minnesota ranks 11th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.36, 23rd in OPS at .707, and 24th in batting average hitting .248 as a team. Just like Cleveland all their offensive statistics go up at home, and go up dramatically. Still, they are facing one of the best underrated pitchers in major league baseball in Salazar and I simply don't see them putting up a lot of runs against him.

The wildcard is still up in the air, but for one of your MLB picks I suggest taking the under in this spot. This is arguably the most underrated pitching matchup today and look for both guys to come out and put up some zeros on the board.

Free MLB Pick: Bet the Under at 5Dimes