Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
Look for a meaningless game in regards to the standings to go ‘over’ the total Sunday when Christian Bergman and the Colorado Rockies (66-95, 21-59 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers (93-68, 44-36 home) in the final game of a three-game series and the final game of the regular season from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 4:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.
Preparing for NLDS
The Dodgers were the preseason favorite to represent the National League in the World Series, and they took the first step by clinching the National League West earlier this week. The Dodgers will not be the top seeds in the NL though as the Washington Nationals of the East Division have earned that honor. The Dodgers are locked in to the two-seed no matter what happens here, which makes this a meaningless game for them.
The Rockies have become accustomed to meaningless games as they were the worst MLB picks in the league for much of this season, although at least they did manage to avoid that dubious distinction as that “honor” will go to the Arizona Diamondbacks who enter Sunday at 64-97. The Rockies will be looking to avoid their 60th road loss of the season though, which has been done by just 21 other teams in Major League history.
Greinke on Pitch Count
Now, the ‘over’ is usually not the first thing that comes to mind when Greinke is on the hill, as he would be an ace in just about any other staff that does not include Clayton Kershaw. Greinke is 16-8 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 201 strikeouts in 197.1 innings vs. just 42 walks, and this marked the fourth consecutive season that he posted at least 15 wins, although a 17th victory would be a career high.
With that being said, Greinke will be on a limited pitch count today, especially after throwing a season-high 118 pitches vs. the Giants on Tuesday, as the first priority for Los Angeles is having him fit and ready to pitch Game 2 of the NLDS vs. whatever team wins the National League Central.
Also, even while Greinke is in the game, the Rockies have surprisingly batted .310 against him in three starts this season covering 21 innings despite scoring only seven run in those frames. If Colorado continues to hit Greinke well, but actually pieces hits together, the Rockies could score a few runs here before he departs.
Bergman Struggling as Rookie
The Colorado rookie starter Bergman has not looked ready for prime time, as the youngster is just 3-4 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the year. And that is despite pitching reasonably well in his last start vs. last place Arizona, albeit in only 5.2 innings over which he allowed two earned runs on six hits.
He did not fare well in his only start vs. these Dodgers on September 15th, as Los Angeles reached him for six earned runs on nine hits in five innings. Bergman often pitches to contact with only 27 strikeouts and 10 walks in 49.1 innings, and the downside of that is that he has a very low groundball rate of 32.0 percent, making his disgusting .308 batting average allowed not all that surprising.
Bullpens Helpful to ‘over’
Both bullpens figure to get early calls today, and that is a boost to the ‘over’. The Colorado bullpen ranks dead last in the Major Leagues with a 4.78 ERA, and while the Dodger pen is an already weak 22nd at 3.76, that figure has risen to an abysmal 5.04 over the last 10 games.
Therefore, look for a relatively high scoring affair from Dodger Stadium in the season finale on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Rockies, Dodgers ‘over’ 7 (-102)