Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
After a high-scoring series opener, well at least for the home team, look for far fewer runs Tuesday night when southpaw Jason Vargas and the Kansas City Royals (28-16, 11-9 away) pay a visit to right-hander Adam Warren and the New York Yankees (23-22, 10-10 home) for the second game of a three-game series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 7:05 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Kansas City.
The posted total at Bet365 is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.
11 Runs and Three Outs
The Yankees had lost six straight games and 10 of their last 11 entering the series opener here in the Bronx on Memorial Day yesterday, but they proceeded to hand the Royals a 14-1 drubbing as Kansas City starter Jeremy Guthrie was charged with 11 runs while recording only three outs and surrendering four home runs! The Yankees are still batting just .223 in their last 10 games overall though, so do not look for a carbon copy tonight.
And even with that blowout loss and with now being the losing MLB picks in two straight games following a five-game winning streak, the Royals still own the best record in the American League at 28-16 as they seek their first division title in 30 years. Yes they are the defending American League Champions after making the playoffs for the first time in 29 years last year, but that was as a wild card as the Detroit Tigers won the American League Central.
The Royals lead the Central by two games so far this season over the upstart Minnesota Twins, while the Yankees are in second place in the American League East and just one-half game behind the first place Tampa Bay Rays.
Warren is just 2-3 with a 4.26 ERA overall, but he has been better than that lately while tossing back-to-back Quality Starts vs. the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately the Yankees did not provide him with much run support and Warren lost both of those games by identical 3-2 scores, most recently holding the Nationals to three runs but two earned on just four hits in 6.1 innings.
In fact Warren has now allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five starts while allowing two earned runs or less in three of those outings. Thus he is definitely an improving pitcher and he has the support of a fine Yankees’ bullpen that has been at its best here in Yankee Stadium this year, where it owns a collective 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
This will also be Warren’s first start ever vs. Kansas City, which should work to his benefit, although he does have 6.2 career innings in relief against the Royals over which he has allowed just one run on three hits.
Vargas Activated to Replace Duffy
Danny Duffy was originally scheduled to take this start for the Royals, but he was placed on the Disabled List yesterday with left biceps tendinitis, so Kansas City activated fellow southpaw Vargas off of the DL now that he seems recovered from the flexor strain in his left (throwing) elbow that landed him there. Vargas showed no ill effects from throwing a simulated game on Friday and should be good to go.
Vargas got off to a bad start this season, which is why he has a 5.26 ERA and 1.48 WHIP despite owning a 3-1 record, but he had seemed to turn things around nicely in his last two starts allowing a grand total of four runs on just five hits in 11 innings when the injury occurred. He has been chomping at the bit to get back on the mound ever since and his simulated game was certainly encouraging.
Yes, Vargas has had problems with the Yankees in the past with a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight career games against them. However those were mostly better hitting Yankee teams as this 2015 version is batting just .232 vs. left-handed pitchers overall this season including a woeful .214 here at home.
And of course, the Royals again have the best bullpen in baseball with that unit leading the Major Leagues in pen ERA at 1.79. Thus, there should be very few late tack-on runs for either side here tonight.
The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in the Yankees’ last six games vs. a left-handed starters, as well as 6-2-1 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game, so they may regret using up their quota of runs for a while in the rout on Monday. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the Royals’ last eight games overall.
Look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue in the Bronx when Kansas City visits the New York Yankees on Monday.
MLB Pick: Royals, Yankees ‘under’ 8½ (-120)