MLB Pick On Rockies vs. Padres To Sneak Under The Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, June 3, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 3, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

It may not seem like an obvious play after the last three Padres’ games exceeded 20 total runs but ‘under’ looks like the MLB pick when San Diego hosts the Colorado Rockies.

Although it may not be obvious at first glance, the ‘under’ could have some nice sneaky value Friday night when Chris Rusin and the Colorado Rockies (24-39, 14-14 away) pay a visit Drew Pomeranz and the San Diego Padres (21-34, 11-16 home) in a battle of southpaws as the teams open up a three-game weekend series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:40 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - San Diego.

The posted total at Bovada is 7½ for this contest with the current MLB Odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.


String of High Scoring Padres Game Can’t Continue, Right?
The Padres are generally not a good offensive team and they play in one of the better pitcher’s parks in the National League in Petco Park, and yet in their last two games vs. the Seattle Mariners here, they won 14-6 and lost 16-13! That was on the heels of a 16-4 loss at Seattle on Tuesday, meaning the last three San Diego games have produced at least 20 runs. That is something totally out of character that does not expect to continue much longer.

While the Padres are in last place as MLB Picks in the National League West at 21-34, already 12½ games behind the first place San Francisco Giants, the Rockies are exceeding preseason expectations while sitting in third place with their 24-29 mark, 8½ games out of first. The bubble may be starting to burst though with Colorado losing five of its last six games.


Pomeranz Pitching Like San Diego Ace
We felt that Pomeranz was underrated coming into this season as he was very solid the last two years once he escaped from Colorado, where he began his career, pitching for Oakland as he posted a 3.77 FIP and 3.65 xFIP for the A’s in 2014 and then a 3.62 FIP and 3.89 xFIP last year. Pomeranz did that without a regular spot in the starting rotation, and he is now getting that opportunity to start regularly for the Padres and making the most of it.

In fact, Pomeranz has been the best pitcher on the San Diego staff despite his 4-5 record, as he has a spiffy 2.48 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.61 xFIP and an amazing 69 strikeouts in 58 innings. That strikeout rate of 10.71 per nine innings ranks seventh best in the Major Leagues, and Pomeranz is keeping great company trailing only Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw and Danny Salazar!

Yes he is coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed six earned runs in five innings vs. the Diamondbacks at the launching pad that is Chase Field in Phoenix, but we look for a return to normalcy with Pomeranz being back home here, where he is 2-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. And of course, his familiarity with the Colorado lineup after spending his first three Major League seasons with the Rockies is an added benefit.


Rusin Much Better Away from Colorado
Granted, Rusin does not look like anything special as he is 1-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, but he is not really that bad as most of his damage has come in the altitude of home. He actually has a 3.38 ERA on the road where he has had two sparkling outings, allowing just one hit in five scoreless innings in San Francisco and allowing two runs on six hits in six innings at St. Louis.

Once everything shakes out, Rusin actually has a very good 2.94 FIP and 3.36 xFIP, so like his counterpart here Pomeranz, Rusin may need to get out of Colorado to truly reach his potential. In the meantime though, he should continue to perform admirably on the road, and with the results of the last two nights notwithstanding, Petco does remain a pitcher’s ballpark.

Furthermore, Rusin is facing a San Diego offense still batting just 226 at home overall while averaging just 3.66 runs here for the season, again making the last two nights anomalous.


Nice ‘under’ Run for Pomeranz
Finally, Pomeranz looks like the perfect pitcher to bring some sanity back to San Diego games as the ‘under’ is currently 5-1 in his last six starts overall. Also, the ‘under’ is 9-4 in the Padres’ last 13 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game, as well as 6-2 in the Rockies’ last eight games vs. starters with a WHIP less than 1.15.

So despite the slugfests of recent days, expect those trends to continue and go ‘under’ when Colorado opens up a three-game series in San Diego on Friday.

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MLB Pick: Padres Under 7½ -110
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
MLB Record: 32-31-1, +4.40

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