Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Sunday.
It is a “Battle of the De La Rosas” Sunday with the road team looking to avoid getting swept as southpaw Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies (34-47, 17-25 away) pay a visit to right-hander Rubby De La Rosa (no relation) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (40-41, 22-20 home) for the final game of a four-game holiday weekend series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 4:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a decided underdog for this contest at current odds of +131.
Diamondbacks Won First Three
The Diamondbacks have taken the first three-games of this four-game series, meaning that besides having the chance to finish off the sweep today, they would get back to the .500 mark if they do so. That would be a nice feat for a team that finished with the worst record in the Major Leagues last season at 64-98. Arizona enters this contest in third place in the National League West and only 5½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Rockies meanwhile are now in last place and the losing MLB picks in seven of their last eight games. They are sitting 11½ games behind the Dodgers and only the dreadful Philadelphia Phillies stand between the Rockies and the worst record in the National League. The good news for Colorado as that it appears to have the right pitcher on the mound as it looks to improve that record and avoid the sweep.
Jorge De La Rosa Back in Form
In this Battle of De La Rosas, Jorge is the pitcher that owns that only win for Colorado in the last eight games in Oakland, and in fact the last-place Rockies are 7-1 in the last eight games that he has started! That included prevailing in the previous matchup of the two De La Rosas in Colorado 6-4 on June 25th.
Jorge is probably the most successful Colorado pitcher in history among pitchers with any kind of longevity, but he was off to just a dreadful start this season and still has just a 4.59 ERA and 1.48 WHIP despite his 5-3 record. However, we have been seeing more vintage performances from Jorge lately as he has now allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts as has once again re-staked his claim as the Rockies’ ace.
This stretch includes allowing one run and four hits in that last meeting vs. Arizona two starts back when he was forced from the game after five innings due to a laceration on his finger. That injury turned out to be minor as he took his normal turn vs. the Athletics on Tuesday and promptly may have had is best start yet this season, tossing seven scoreless innings and allowing just four hits!
Rubby De La Rosa Well Supported
Now the other De La Rosa, Rubby, also has a winning record this season at 6-3, but he has also received some of the best run support in the Major Leagues with the Diamondbacks averaging 5.38 runs in his starts. Thus, Rubby has gotten away with posting a 4.60 ERA, and he has been inconsistent throughout the season.
Yes, his recent form matches that of Jorge, as since allowing a total of 16 earned runs over just 10 innings in back-to-back starts vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, Rubby has since allowed two runs or less in four straight outings. The difference is that Rubby does not have the past track record that Jorge has, and thus you never know when Rubby will revert back to that awful form again.
Furthermore, Rubby fell one out short of an official Quality Start in his last outing vs. the Dodgers Tuesday despite being charged with only two earned runs, as he labored through 97 pitches in his 5.2 innings.
Elusive .500 Mark for Arizona
Finally, getting to .500 has seemed like an impenetrable barrier for the Diamondbacks as they have sat one game below .500 like they are now 11 times since being 8-8 back on April 24th, and incredulously they have gone 0-11 in those attempts to get back to that mark!
Well, even though Arizona is favored today, it may yet again fail to get to .500 with Colorado seemingly providing good value while trying to avoid the four-game sweep in Phoenix on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Rockies +131