Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.
After a couple of ‘unders’ the last two nights, their could be a fairly high scoring game in the series finale Thursday night when southpaw Wade Miley and the Boston Red Sox (27-33, 12-19 away) pay a visit to right-hander Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (28-30, 19-13 home) for the last game of a three-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET in a game available on NESN.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -117.
Bottom Two Teams in American League East
This is a matchup of the bottom two teams in the American League East, which may come as a surprise to many. More than a few experts gave the Red Sox a chance to make a Worst to First move in the division this year after finishing in last place last season, but instead they are sitting dead last once again and even more firmly so after losing the first two games of this series by scores of 1-0 and 5-2, as Boston trails the first place New York Yankees by 6½ games.
The Orioles made the playoffs each of the last two seasons and they are the reigning division champions, but they too have been disappointing MLB picks this year at two games below .500, although the two wins over the Red Sox the last two nights leave Baltimore two games ahead of Boston while in fourth place, 4½ games behind the Yankees.
Tillman Not Overachieving This Season
Tillman was an All-Star two years ago and he followed that up by going 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA last year, but he is not having nearly the same success this season at 3-7 with a high 5.61 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. So the conventional wisdom says that he is having a disappointing year, right? Well....
We belief a more accurate description would be that like most of the Baltimore team, Tillman out-performed his very average peripheral numbers the last two years and this his mainstream and peripheral numbers are more closely in line this season, as they should be. To wit, Tillman had a 4.42 FIP despite a 3.71 ERA in 2013 and a 4.01 FIP despite the 3.34 ERA last year. This season Tillman has an ugly 4.83 FIP as well as a 4.92 xFIP, so he really has been as bad as the record and ERA suggests.
Furthermore Tillman has been even worse at Camden Yards going 0-5 with a 6.39 ERA in his six home starts.
Can Miley Do It Again?
As for Miley, he was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks during the off-season to give the Red Sox more pitching depth, but he is only 5-5 with a 4.67 ERA and he has just five Quality Starts in his 11 starts in a Red Sox uniform. Just about the only good news is that he comes off of one of his best starts of the season where he allowed two earned runs on six hits in 7.1 innings with six strikeouts.
However, that came against the Oakland Athletics, a team that has struggled badly vs. left-handed pitching all year, back home in Fenway Park. Miley was awful in his only other start vs. the Orioles this season, and that start came here in Baltimore on April 26th when he was charged with seven runs (six earned) while lasting only 2.1 innings.
It may be two much to ask Miley to string two good starts together, especially while facing a better offense tonight with Baltimore ranking eighth in the Major Leagues in home runs with 62, which is not a good omen with Miley allowing more than one home run per game at 1.06 per nine innings.
Tillman Trending ‘over’
Finally, the ‘over’ is 7-2 in Tillman’s last nine home starts and 4-0 in his last four home starts vs. a teams with losing records.
Considering Miley not being the most reliable of starters for Boston, look for those ‘over’ patterns for Tillman to continue when Boston visits Baltimore for the finale of a three-game series on Thursday.
MLB Pick: Red Sox, Orioles ‘over’ 8½ (-117)