Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.
Runs may be hard to come by near Hollywood on Sunday when right-hander Nick Martinez and the Texas Rangers (47-49, 31-23 away) pay a visit to southpaw Andrew Heaney and the Los Angeles Angels (54-43, 31-21 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 3:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Southwest.
The posted total at Bet365 is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.
Halos Looking To Avoid Home Sweep
The Rangers have been very streaky this season and just when it looked like they were ready to fade away in the American League West race, they have gotten back to within two games of .500 by taking the first two games of this series in Anaheim, improving the Texas road record to 31-23 this season as opposed to just 16-26 back home in Arlington. The Rangers trail the first place Angels and Astros by 6½ games while in third place.
The Halos had overtaken the Astros in the standings, but being the losing MLB picks in the first two games of this series has now dropped Los Angeles into a virtual first-place tie with Houston, although technically the Angels do still lead the division by one percentage point. The Angels have now lost three straight games overall all at home after losing the series finale to the Minnesota Twins before Texas came to town, dropping their home mark to 31-21.
Heaney Flourishing in Second Season
Heaney was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball when he was called up by the Miami Marlins last season, but he did not fare well at the Major League level going 0-3 in seven appearances including five starts with a 5.83 ERA, and he was traded to the Angels after the season. Well, Heaney is certainly enjoying his new surroundings in Anaheim as he appears to have blossomed in his second go-around in the majors.
Heaney is a perfect 4-0 in five starts in an Angels’ uniform with a stellar 1.57 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a sparkling ratio of 27 strikeouts vs. four walks in 34.1 innings. He is a perfect five for five in Quality Starts over his outings and none of them were of the cheap variety either, as he has yet to allow more than two runs in any start and he has gone at least seven innings four times while allowing one run in six innings in the other start.
The young southpaw is facing a Texas lineup batting just .219 vs. left-hander pitchers on the road this season compared to .251 vs. right-handers, and the fact that this is his first start ever against the Rangers should make Heaney even tougher to hit.
Success vs. the Angels
Now admittedly, we are not very high on Martinez, in fact listing him among our pitchers to fade the rest of the season during the All-Star break. And his regression has probably begun considering he was roughed up for seven earned runs in four innings in Colorado in his last start Monday. There still room for more regression for Martinez too considering that his ERA still stands at 3.92.
However, the Angels are one team that Martinez actually has a legitimately good track record against. He has made six appearances vs. Los Angeles including five starts since first being called up to the majors last season, and although he is 1-2 in those games, he has a 2.08 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while holding the Angels to a .218 batting average over 34.2 innings.
Part of the reason for that success is because Angel teammates Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, who are currently tied for the Major League lead in home runs with 29 apiece, have gone a combined 1-for-20 against Martinez lifetime with the only hit being a double by Trout. If that success against that duo continues, than Martinez’s regression could be put on hold for this start and he could do his part in helping keep the scoring in this contest down.
Low Scoring Games in Anaheim
Angel Stadium is general considered a pitchers’ ballpark and the numbers seems to support that this year, with the ‘under’ going 30-20-2, 60.0 percent in all games played in this stadium with those games averaging just a combined 7.10 runs.
All things considered, look for another low scoring game and for the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels to go ‘under’ on Sunday.
MLB Pick: Rangers, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-110)