MLB Pick: Pitching Matchup's Aside Take The Twins To Upset The Astros In Minnesota

Tyler Duffey

Charles Stark

Monday, August 8, 2016 5:15 PM GMT

Two teams that have been going in opposite directions their last 10 games meet up today when the hot Minnesota Twins take on the cold Houston Astros. Houston has the better pitcher on the mound and a much better record overall so they come in as a solid road favorite. Is there any value in backing the hotter team or will Houston start to turn things around?

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins  
Oddsmakers have made Minnesota a +125 favorite in this matchup for MLB odds. It makes sense considering starting pitcher Tyler Duffey has gotten knocked around considerably this season. However, the team as a whole is playing really well and offensively they are tearing it up so for my MLB pick I will back the home dog Twins with some pretty good plus money.

 

Minnesota Twins
Tyler Duffey takes the mound for Minnesota with a real high 6.21 ERA and 1.53 whip overall and worse numbers in Minnesota. Surprisingly at home, he has an eye-popping 7.96 ERA with batters hitting .345 against him. On those numbers alone he is not an easy guy to back today but I still think there is actually decent value in doing so considering that despite his poor numbers he has a 6-8 record and the Twins have won six out of the last 10 times he has started on the mound. That is not to say he has been good in any way because he hasn't but Minnesota is playing their best baseball of the season so I believe any plus money value on them is worth a shot. 

Duffey has shown the capability at times to pitch decently well like allowing two hits in eight innings against the Yankees and two hits in six innings against the Rangers so all might not be lost on the young right-hander. Minnesota's offense has been on fire over the past few weeks and in their last 10 games, they're averaging well over six runs per game. Statistically, they are arguably the best hitting team with a losing record in baseball as they rank ninth in total bases, 12th in both hits per game and OPS, and 13th in runs per game.

 

Houston Astros
Collin McHugh gets the start for Houston with a 4.73 ERA and 1.48 whip overall this season. Looking at just those numbers makes it a bit surprising that he is the favorite today until you look at his counterpart's. I believe Minnesota has every chance to knock him around as he comes in with a 5.44 ERA on the road with batters hitting over .300 against him in 10 starts this season. He did pitch decent in his last start versus Toronto at home allowing just three earned runs in six innings, however in his start just prior to that he got shelled for eight earned runs off of 10 hits in less than two innings at Detroit. 

Offensively the Astros have been really struggling to score runs at any consistent rate recently and lost a tough extra innings game yesterday versus Texas. In their last 10 games they are averaging just around 2.5 runs per game and at most they scored six versus Detroit in a loss and five versus Texas in a win in that stretch. As well, in the middle of that past 10 game stretch, they went six straight games where they scored at most just two runs. All things considered with McHugh's road numbers combined with Houston's recent offensive slump I believe puts a good value on backing a Minnesota team that is 7-3 and their past 10 games.

 

Free MLB Picks: Twins +125 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
July record: 13-9
August record: 5-2

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