Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
There could be a relatively low scoring affair in Cheesehead Country Tuesday night when Andrew Cashner and the San Diego Padres (52-54, 28-29 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Jimmy Nelson and the Milwaukee Brewers (44-63, 20-34 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - San Diego.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.
Teams Heading in Opposite Directions
The Padres were highly touted before the year after spending more money than they have in years during the off-season thanks to being under new management, but they were a major disappointment until recently. That is starting to change for San Diego though as the winning MLB pick in eight of the last 10 games, and although the Padres remain two games under .500, they are now third in the National League West, 8½ games behind the first-place Dodgers.
The Pads are even closer to the second wild card spot, trailing the Chicago Cubs by six games although there are two other teams (San Francisco and Washington) between those two clubs.
The Brewers on the other hand seem to have given up on the season as Milwaukee has lost six straight games to fall 24 games behind the first-place St. Louis Cardinals while in last place in the National League Central, the largest division deficit in all of baseball, and the Brew Crew dealt away a five-tool star in Carlos Gomez at the trading deadline. In fact, the Brewers are only 2½ games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for the worst record in the Major Leagues!
Nelson Coming into His Own
The youngster Nelson has always had great potential because he throws as sinking fastball in the 93-96 MPH range that can simultaneously produce a good strikeout rate and induce a lot of groundballs when contact is made, making him a favorite among scouts. Now Nelson may be just 8-9 pitching for a terrible team with a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but the way he has blossomed in recent starts makes him a bright spot in an otherwise dismal year for Milwaukee.
Nelson has been fabulous while allowing a grand total of three earned runs over his last four starts with those three earned runs coming in one game, as he has a brilliant 0.99 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the four outings with 27 strikeouts in 27.1 innings and no home runs allowed. For the season, Nelson now has a strikeouts rate of 7.65 per nine innings and a 49.9 percent groundball rate, and the scary part for the rest of the league is that he is seemingly maturing with every start.
Cashner Better than His Record
Cashner has always had some of the nastiest stuff in the National League when he is on top of his game, so it is rather surprising that he is a disappointing 4-10 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season. He comes off of another rough outing vs. the red-hot New York Mets last Thursday where he surrendered seven runs (five earned) on six hits plus two walks in 5.1 innings with two of the hits he allowed being home runs.
However, the news in not entirely bleak in regard to Cashner as he had started to look like his usual self in his previous five outing prior to Thursday, as he had allowed three earned runs allowed in four of those five starts, and the one time he did not he allowed just three hits despite allowing four runs. He now has a chance to regain that good form vs. a Milwaukee offense batting a horrific .203 and averaging a paltry 2.00 runs over the last 10 games.
Besides, Cashner is probably better than his mainstream numbers anyway when you consider he has a good 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings and has also pitched in bad luck with a low 61.1 percent strand rate.
Trending the ‘under’
Finally, these teams are used to playing lower scoring games with the ‘under’ going 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings. Additionally, the ‘under’ is 8-1-2 in the Brewers’ last 11 games overall, as well as 15-6-2 in Cashner’s last 23 starts as an underdog for the Padres.
Look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue given this matchup of underrated pitchers right now when San Diego visits Milwaukee on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Padres, Brewers ‘under’ 7½ (-104)