Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
Expect a higher scoring game Wednesday night than in the second game of this series last night when Ian Kennedy and the San Diego Padres (52-55, 28-30 away) again pay a visit to fellow right-hander Taylor Jungmann and the Milwaukee Brewers (45-63, 21-34 home) for the third game of a four-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI at 8:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - San Diego.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at a positive +108.
Split the First Two Games
The Padres are trying to get back into the playoff hunt after a poor start to this season, but after taking the series opener here Monday 13-5, they fell to the Brewers last night in a better pitched game 4-1, which pleased us as we cashed in on the ‘under’. San Diego remains in third place in the National League West 8½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers, and they trail the Chicago Cubs by seven games for the second wild card spot.
The Brewers had been the losing MLB picks in six straight games before that Tuesday breakthrough, but they remain in last place in the National League Central at a whopping 23 games behind the first place St. Louis Cardinals, and they are also still just 2½ games ahead of the Phillies for the worst record in the Major Leagues, as Philadelphia upset the Dodgers last night.
Jungmann Not Ready for Low Total?
Now, Jungmann is having a fine rookie season as he has managed to go 5-3 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while pitching for a last place team that is 18 games under .500. But still, has he done quite enough just yet over 10 Major League starts to justify such a low posted total as this one? Besides, he has probably not pitched quite as well as that ERA and WHIP.
You see, Jungmann has a rather ho-him command ratio of 7.38 strikeouts vs. 2.92 walks per nine innings, and he has been a bit fortunate in allowing only a .271 BABIP allowed, which becomes magnified with pitchers that usually pitch to contact. This has led to a 3.86 xFIP, which while not terrible, is still more than 1½ runs higher than his ERA, which is almost never a good sign.
Now Jungmann must contend with a Padres’ lineup that has been on fire vs. right-handed pitchers, batting .295 and averaging a robust 6.42 runs per game against them over the last 10 games.
Kennedy Not What He Once Was
As for Kennedy, it was not too long ago that he was one of the best pitchers in the National League as he garnered some Cy Young Award votes in 2011 when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA for the Arizona Diamondbacks. However it has been all downhill since then and although he has flashed brief glimpses of that form at times, the bottom line is he has never really gotten consistently on track this year at 6-9 with a 4.44 ERA overall
The worse news is that Kennedy’s peripherals seem to support those mediocre mainstream numbers, as his 5.21 FIP is the second highest in the Major Leagues ahead of only Kyle Kendrick, who at least has the excuse of pitching in the altitude of Colorado. Kennedy is also allowing a horrific 2.00 home runs per nine innings, which is also second worst in the majors ahead of only Kendrick.
That could be a concern here because the Brewers have hit 93 home runs this season and 69 of them have come off of right-handed pitchers.
Time for New ‘over’ Streak?
Finally, the ‘under’ last night snapped a 6-0 ‘over’ run by the Padres over which they averaged 7.17 runs per game. Facing a hot Jimmy Nelson in peak form like San Diego did on Tuesday will cool off a lot of bats though, and we are not nearly as high on Jungmann despite his spiffy ERA.
Thus, expect the San Diego bats to awaken again, and when you combine that with Kennedy’s pitching struggles for the Padres, look for an ‘over’ this time in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Padres, Brewers ‘over’ 7½ (+108)