Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
Do not anticipate too much scoring in the City of Brotherly Love Wednesday night when Ubaldo Jimenez and the Baltimore Orioles (33-31, 9-17 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Kevin Correia and the Philadelphia Phillies (22-44, 15-16 home) in the first of two games from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET in a game available on MASN.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.
Orioles Put Up 19 Runs Tuesday!
The Orioles defeated the Phillies the last two nights at Camden Yards in Baltimore including a 19-3 shellacking last night, as Baltimore belted out a club record eight home runs among its 17 hits! The Orioles has a slow start this year, but they now trail the first place Tampa Bay Rays by just two games while in third place in the American League East. Still, they may have been better served saving some of those runs as they have not been as potent on the road.
The Phillies have now been the losing MLB picks in eight games in a row and they have taken over the dubious distinction of owning the worst record in the Major Leagues with a dismal .333 winning percentage at 22-44. It has not helped matters that Philadelphia is the lowest scoring team in the majors averaging a measly 3.03 runs per game, and they are batting a hideous .227 vs. right-handed pitchers overall.
Jimenez Not What He Was, But Still Effective
That awful batting vs. right-handers should help the Orioles’ Jimenez tonight, not that he is really in need of too much help. Granted he is not what he once was, and nowhere near the Cy Young worthy caliber he was with the Colorado Rockies a few years back, but he remains an effective hurler at 4-3 with a nice 3.19 ERA and a fine ratio of 66 strikeouts vs. 24 walks in 67.2 innings. Jimenez has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts.
Granted he does not have good career numbers vs. the Phillies, but then again he has not faced them in five year with the last start coming in 2010 before Jimenez went over to the American League. And as we alluded to earlier, this 2015 version of the Phillies does not have nearly have the same thump as the Philadelphia teams that he used to face.
And should Jimenez be in need of relief, he has the support of a great Baltimore bullpen that is ranked sixth in the Major Leagues with a collective 2.86 ERA.
Great Return for Correia
However, the Orioles may have some trouble scoring runs themselves tonight with the change in venue following that 19-run outburst in Camden Yards on Tuesday. That is because Baltimore is batting only .233 and averaging just 3.49 runs vs. right-handed pitchers on the road, which is its worst batting split this season.
That should make things easier on Correia, who had a terrific return to the Major Leagues for the Phillies last Friday vs. the Pirates in Pittsburgh as he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings allowing five hits and striking out four vs. just one walk, just four days after Philadelphia acquired the 34-year-old from the San Francisco Giants’ Triple-A team, the Sacramento River Cats.
And remember that Correia also pitched well vs. the Orioles the only time he faced them just last season while he was with the Minnesota Twins, limiting them to one run and five hits in seven fine innings.
Amazing ‘under’ Trends
Finally, the ‘under’ is an unbelievable 42-18-2 in the Orioles’ last 62 road games, as well as 22-10-2 in their last 34 games vs. right-handed starters. The ‘under’ is also 11-5 in the Phillies’ last 16 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
Given these starting pitchers and the batting splits for these two teams, look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue for at least one more game when Baltimore visits Philadelphia on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Orioles, Phillies ‘under’ 7½ (-105)