MLB Pick: New York Mets, Colorado Rockies ‘under’ 10½

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 15, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Dillon Gee of the Mets and Juan Nicasio of the Rockies both pitched well in their seasonal debuts and then slipped in their second starts, and look for both to rebound on Monday.

In what could be a lower scoring game than the double-digit total suggests under freezing conditions on Monday night, Dillon Gee and the New York Mets (7-4, 3-2 away) pay a visit to Juan Nicasio and the Colorado Rockies (8-4, 3-0 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 8:40 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 10½ or this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

The Mets are off to a surprising start for the second year in a row, as they are 7-4 thanks to unrealistically averaging 6.27 runs per game, which almost certainly will not continue for a team that does not really look offensively potent on paper outside of the face of the franchise in David Wright.

New York is coming off of an abbreviated two-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins as the scheduled third game of that series was postponed due to snow and 30-degree temperatures.. Well, the conditions do not exactly figure to be favorable in Denver tonight either as the forecast calls for snow and temperatures in the 30s, so it is almost as if the Mets never left Minneapolis. The frigid weather cannot make hitting too much fun.

The Mets’ starting pitcher Gee was a 13-game winner for the Mets in 2011, but he slipped to 6-7 with a 4.10 ERA last season. He did have a nice 2013 debut however as he limited the San Diego Padres to just one run on only three hits in 6.1 innings of a very unlucky 2-1 loss, but Gee regressed in Philadelphia last Tuesday allowing seven earned runs on 10 hits including three home runs while lasting only three innings.

Still, with these inclement weather conditions, Gee could rediscover his good form and his only career start vs. the Rockies was a good one here at Coors Field last season as he posted a Quality Start while allowing three earned runs and seven hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts against only two walks in a 7-5 Mets victory.

The Rockies are returning from a six-game road trip where Colorado first got swept in a three- game series vs. the San Francisco Giants before regrouping to record a three-game sweep of its own over the Padres in San Diego this past weekend.

They now turn to Nicasio to take this start tonight, who like Gee was sharp in his first outing of the year allowing only two runs in six innings at Milwaukee over the Brewers but who then regressed in his second start surrendering four earned runs in five innings vs. the Giants as he was hurt by issuing five walks.

However, Nicasio is now making his 2013 home debut, and he has pitched much better at Coors than he has on the road during his brief career. Moreover, he is also making his first career start vs. the Mets, which is usually to the pitcher’s advantage.

Finally, the Rockies have played only three home games so far and all three of those contests stayed ‘under’. Look for that pattern to continue in the cold conditions on Monday.

[gameodds]3/224850/93-238-19-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mets, Rockies ‘under’ 10½ (-120)