MLB Pick: Money Line Underdog Value Found in Marlins +140 Over Giants

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, May 9, 2015 1:45 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant provides us with a betting preview for the Marlins and Giants game on Saturday. Join us in reading this very informative article which culminates with a money line selection.

Marlins and Giants at AT&T Park in San Francisco
The San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins on Saturday at 9:05 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Bookmaker, the Giants are a -160 money line favorite, and the posted total is 6.5. This will be the third of a four game series, and the teams split the first two. Miami took the series opener 7-2 on Thursday, and San Francisco rebounded with a 6-0 win on Friday behind the continued red-hot pitching at home by Tim Lincecum.

 

Starting Pitchers
David Phelps will make his fifth start of the season on Saturday for the Marlins. Phelps has been very good in his first four, evidenced by a stellar 1.87 ERA in those outings. This will be the first career start versus San Francisco for the Miami right-handed hurler.

San Francisco will send their pitching ace Madison Bumgarner to the mound tonight. The southpaw has displayed excellent form in his last three starts by posting a 1.25 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Bumgarner has gone 1-4 in his career team starts versus Miami with a lofty 4.66 ERA, and the previous four of those outings all went over the total.

 

Home Plate Umpire
Mike Muchlinski is slated to be calling balls and strikes on Saturday at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Muchlinski has gone 91-69 under the total in his career, and that includes 36-21 since the start of the 2013 MLB campaign. Home teams have gone 102-63 (.618) all time with Muchlinski behind the dish.

 

Team Updates
Both of these teams have come on strong after slow starts to the season. Miami went 3-11 in their first fourteen games, and has gone 11-5 since that time. San Francisco began the year 4-10, and has proceeded to go 11-4 in their last fifteen games. Miami is 10-4-1 over the total on the road this season, and San Francisco is 12-6-2 under at home. The Marlins are 4-1 versus left-handed starting pitchers in 2015, hitting a robust .299 as a team in that role, and went 3-0-2 over the total. The Giants have gone 9-13 versus right-handed starting pitching.

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Final Analysis
Both of these starting pitchers are in very good form during their recent starts. However, for whatever reason, Bumgarner has struggled in his young career versus the Marlins. Miami has gone 4-1 in their last five following a loss, and have fared very well when facing southpaw starting pitching so far in 2015. I’m going to side with the money line underdog in this matchup for one of my MLB picks on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Play Miami +140 on the money line over San Francisco  at BookMaker.