MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +145 over Los Angeles Dodgers

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, April 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is on top of his game, but he has been off a bit and Kyle Lohse of the Brewers has been great since last season.

The underdog looks to offer nice value with a consistently good pitcher on Sunday when Kyle Lohse and those Milwaukee Brewers (12-10, 5-5 away) pay a visit to Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers (9-8, 5-4 home) as the teams wrap up a three-game series from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 4:10 ET.

The posted money line at 5 Dimes has Milwaukee as a nice road underdog for this contest at current odds of +145.

The Brewers have caught fire since a 2-8 start to this season as Milwaukee has now won 10 out of 12 games since then after evening this series with a 6-4 win here in Los Angeles last night. In fact, the Brewers have had recent uncanny success at Dodger Stadium as Saturday’s win marked their fifth win here in the last six games, with the lone loss in LA coming in the series opener 7-5 on Friday.

Yes, the Brewers must now face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, but Milwaukee starter Kyle Lohse has been just as effective and he has been amazingly consistent since the beginning of last season. When you add in a struggling Los Angeles offense, Lohse appears to give Milwaukee excellent value at this price.

Lohse had a fantastic year for the St. Louis Cardinals last season as he finished 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while allowing three earned runs or less in 29 of his 33 starts. He then signed with Milwaukee as a free agent and he is off to a fine start to his Brewer career as Lohse has yet to allow more than three runs in four starts while posting a 2.52 ERA and a tiny 0.96 WHIP through 25 innings.

He now gets to face a Dodgers’ lineup that has scored the third fewest runs in the Major Leagues, and that is averaging only 3.18 runs per game while batting just .215 vs. right-handed pitching here at home.

Kershaw began this season by tossing 16 scoreless innings over his first two starts, including a Complete Game four-hit shutout vs. the San Francisco Giants on opening day, but he has not seemed quite right in his three starts since then while posting just a 4.08 ERA and a high 1.53 WHIP over 17.2 innings, as he is suddenly battling his command with 11 walks over those outings.

Remember that Kershaw struggled with his control early in his career and he did not achieve elite status and win a Cy Young Award until he cut down on his walks, so his 19-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, as well as 16 hits allowed in 17.2 innings, over his last three outings are not good signs.

Finally, Kershaw did not pitch well in his only start vs. the Brewers last season allowing five earned runs on eight hits plus four walks while lasting just 5.2 innings, so back Lohse and Milwaukee at a nice price on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Brewers +145

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