MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -118 over San Diego Padres

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Brewers have won nine in a row and the underrated Marco Estrada has one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the league. The Padres have lost five straight and are 1-7 at home.

The road favorites appears to offer some value on Wednesday night when the underrated Marco Estrada and the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (11-8, 4-3 away) once again pay a visit to Edinson Volquez and the reeling San Diego Padres (5-15, 1-7 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a moderate road favorite for this contest at current odds of -118.

In a battle between two teams heading in opposite directions, the Brewers just may be the hottest team in baseball right now as they have won nine games in a row since beginning the season 2-8 with the latest two victories coming in the first two games here in San Diego.

They are now going for the clean road sweep with Estrada on the hill, who we feel is often underappreciated for a pitcher that has such great command. Of course when you finish 5-7 like Estrada did last season, people tend to overlook the fact that he had 143 strikeouts in 138.1 inning compared to just 29 walks, or that he finished with a good 3.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

He has maintained his good form this season too since a mediocre seasonal debut as he has since reeled off three straight Quality Starts with the most recent coming vs. the Chicago Cubs this past weekend, and his command has once again been impeccable as he has 25 strikeouts against a measly four walks in 24 innings this young season.

Estrada should have continued success in this pitcher’s paradise that is Petco Park vs. a San Diego lineup that is batting just .239 vs. right-handed pitchers thus far while averaging 3.27 runs per nine innings against them, and the fact that this is his first career start vs. the Padres should make Estrada doubly tough to hit.

On the flip side, San Diego has now lost five straight games to drop to 5-15 overall, and the Padres are a horrific 1-7 here in their own stadium thus far. Besides the struggles of the offense, another problem has been the starting pitching as the San Diego starters have a collective 5.87 ERA, and surprisingly that ERA rises to 7.50 in their spacious home stadium.

Volquez was thought to be the new ace of the San Diego staff when he came over from the Cincinnati Reds last year, but his short stint as a Padre has been injury plagued and he just does not look himself this season as he is 0-3 with the Padres as a team losing all four of his starts with an atrocious 8.84 ERA and 2.13 WHIP, as he has almost as many walks (10) as he does strikeouts (12) through 18.1 innings and the league is hitting a hearty .354 off of him!

As if that was not awful enough, Volquez must now deal with a hot offense that touched him up six earned runs on six hits including three home runs plus four walks in only five innings the last time he faced the Brewers last season.

With all of this in mind, lay the reasonable price as the Brewers look to make it 10 straight wins on the road on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Brewers -118

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