MLB Pick: Mets Look To Beat Indians For Second Time In A Row

Saturday, April 16, 2016 11:00 AM GMT

The Mets look to make it two in a row over the Indians & Matt Harvey. Josh Tomlin, meanwhile, makes his season debut for the Tribe. Get your MLB pick and betting analysis.

New York Mets (4-5) – Matt Harvey (1-0, 4.15 ERA)
The Mets took the first of the interleague, three-game series last night 6-5 despite carrying cool bats. They entered Cleveland batting a league-low .194, but exploded for 14 hits, including four dingers off Cody Anderson and a host of relievers. The everlasting Bartolo Colon picked up his first win on the young season, lowering his ERA to 2.13.

Matt Harvey is seeking his first win, despite showing flashes of brilliance in his two prior outings. A few mechanical hitches have led to some major mistakes at inopportune times, including a two-run homer to the Phillies in his last start after retiring 10 of 11 batters. Overall, he has allowed six earned on 14 hits in 11.2 innings pitched, striking out just five, uncharacteristically low for the reigning NL Comeback Player of the Year.

The Mets’ ace has baffled interleague opponents in the past. Not including last year’s World Series, he owns a 1.27 ERA in nine careers starts. The bats and the pen have let him down for the most part. The Kings of Queens are 5-4 in these contests with the UNDER as offered by the MLB Odds going 6-3.

Harvey has not faced one batter on the Indians’ current roster. This should prove an advantage for the big guy, if he can find the plate.

New York is just 7-10 in games Harvey starts as away chalk, netting nearly a 30 percent return for bettors backing the dogs. The always-streaky Queens lineup failed to knock in four runs or more in six of the defeats.

Last night’s mini-offensive explosion inched New York’s runs per game mark up to 2.89 per game (26th in MLB). Needless to say, the lineup ranks in the bottom third of most hitting categories.


 

Cleveland Indians (4-4) – Josh Tomlin (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Tomlin, who went 7-2 in 10 late-season outings last year following a comeback from shoulder surgery, is making his 2016 debut after a washout canceled his first scheduled start. Bouncing back and forth between the pen and the rotation throughout his career, he beat out Trevor Bauer for the No. 5 spot in spring training.

Only four Mets hitters have faced Tomlin in the past, putting up a combined .250 batting average. Backup outfielder Alejandro De Aza, who got the start in centerfield last night with Yoenis Cespedes penciled into the DH spot, has seen him the most. Likely to start again this afternoon, he has slugged one homer and a double off Tomlin in 13 plate appearances.

Starting eight games as a home dog at Progressive Field, the Indians are 4-4 SU with the over-under going 4-4 when Tomlin tosses the first pitch. He and the pen allow 4.4 runs on average.

The Indians score 4.38 runs per game, finding success with the long ball. Their 1.25 homers a night is ninth most in MLB. It is all or nothing at the plate though. The rosters 25.4 percent strikeout rate ranks in the bottom five of the league.

 

Final Analysis
Harvey typically excels against lineups fanning a lot at the plate. The Mets are 10-3 in his career when he squares off against foes with a strikeout rate of 24 percent or greater, and 4-16 versus those less than 21 percent. With the Mets’ hitters starting to find the holes, the run support should be there to support a solid effort from the right-hander. New York -120 is the MLB Pick for this game.

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MLB Pick:  Mets -123
Best Line Offered:  at YouWager

MLB YTD (3-1, -104)