MLB Pick: Martinez To Get The W For Cardinals Over Royals Tonight

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, June 29, 2016 2:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 29, 2016 2:06 PM UTC

The KC Royals and St. Louis Cardinals continue their 4-game, early week set, after splitting 2 games in KC. Read on to get out exclusive Free MLB Pick for tonight's game.

Kansas City Royals vs. St Louis Cardinals
In last week’s article on Buy and Sell Teams, I noted that the KC Royals were notably outperforming their OPS numbers. At that time, the Royals had a 38-32 record (the 9th best record in the league), despite OPS numbers that were only good for the 18th ranked record in the league.

The turnaround has already begun with the Royals going 2-4, since the time of the article. Look for it to continue tonight, as KC is just 13-25 on the road (only Minnesota has fewer road wins in the AL) and the Royals will be sending Volquez to the mound. His ERA dropped to 5.15 after lasting just 1+ IP while allowing 12 runs in his previous outing. He has also pitched poorly on the road with a .839 OPS. Coming off that horrendous performance, we can only consider playing against him here tonight. 


Betting Preview
St. Louis is at the other end of the spectrum, as noted in both that BUY and SELL article of last week, as well as being one of the home teams we are looking to play on. At the time of last week’s writing, St. Louis was 37-33 (good for the 12th record in the league). But, their combined batting and pitching OPS marks imply they should have the 3rd best record. St. Louis has since gone 3-3, meaning the uptick is about to begin. The same was true when I reviewed the home buy and sell teams earlier this week.

With a 15-21 record at home, the Cards have the 26th worst home record in all of the MLB. But their combined home batting plus pitching OPS numbers imply they should have the 6th best home record. That is a full 20 positions below where the record should be. With a recent 0-5 home record, yet a history that finds St. Louis to be a perennial 50-game winner at home each season, it is clear the St. Louis’ resurgence is about to begin. Sending Martinez to the mound should prove positive. The season for Martinez has been a bit streaky, but he is currently on a positive streak in which he has worked 7 or more innings in 4 of his last 5 starts, allowing a total of only 5 runs.

We play the run line in the game, knowing that 12 of 15 St. Louis’ home victories and 33 of 39 victories in all have come by 2 or more runs, while 18 of 25 KC road losses have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB Pick on the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Cardinals, -1½ +125  
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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