MLB Pick On Marlins As Small Dogs To Tee Off On Pelfrey & Tigers

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 28, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins could have good MLB pick value as small underdogs with a hot Adam Conley on the bump Tuesday as they visit the Detroit Tigers and the abysmal Mike Pelfrey.  


There could be some nice interleague value Tuesday night in what looks like a starting pitching mismatch in favor of the small underdogs when hot southpaw Adam Conley and the Miami Marlins (41-35, 20-16 away) pay a visit to struggling right-hander Mike Pelfrey and the Detroit Tigers (38-38, 21-16 home) for the first game of a brief two-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 7:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Detroit.

The posted money line at Heritage Sports has Miami as a tiny underdog for this contest at current MLB Odds of +101.


Closest Pursuers to Washington
Rather surprisingly, the Marlins are now in second place in the National League East, 3½ games behind the Washington Nationals and one-half game ahead of the preseason favorites to win the division, the third place New York Mets. The Fish continued their fine play this past weekend by taking three out of four games from the current World Series favorite and still the team with the best record in baseball, the Chicago Cubs.

The Tigers meanwhile were the losing MLB Picks in all three games this weekend to the Cleveland Indians here at home, missing a chance to close ground on the leaders of the American League Central Division, falling instead to an even .500 at 38-38 and 7½ games behind the Tribe while in third place. This is actually the second time these teams have met in interleague play this year after opening the season against each other, with the Tigers winning twice in Miami.

Pelfrey Not Long for Starting Rotation?
The Marlins now get a chance to turn the tables on the Tigers’ home field, and we simply feel compelled to fade Detroit’s Pelfrey at close to a Pick’em game because, well, he has simply been that bad. Pelfrey may find himself out of the starting rotation soon if he continues on his current path that has seen him allow 14 runs in 17.2 innings his last three starts, including allowing five earned runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings vs. Seattle in his last start.

That leaves Pelfrey at a distressing 1-7 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.70 for the season and he has terrible command numbers with only 40 strikeouts vs. 31 walks in 80.2 innings to go along with 12 home runs allowed. That all shakes out to a horrific 5.36 FIP and 5.08 xFIP, with that xFIP being the third worst in baseball among qualified starting pitchers and the FIP being the sixth worst.

Now he must contend with a Miami offense that has been hot against right-handed pitchers, batting .282 and averaging a potent 5.92 runs per game against them over the last 10 contests.


Conley Coming on Strong
Meanwhile the southpaw Conley was not off to the best of starts for Miami, but he has suddenly been pitching as well as any pitcher in the league as of late while allowing three runs or less in five of his last six starts including allowing one run or less in three of them. He was brilliant his last time out vs. the Atlanta Braves last Wednesday tossing eight scoreless innings while allowing just four hits.

Yes, it was “only the Braves” but Conley has also pitched well vs. better offense during this hot streak, limiting the Colorado Rockies to one run and holding the Pittsburgh Pirates scoreless. He has now evened his record at 4-4 and lowered his ERA to 3.56 following his bad start and he does have very decent command numbers with 76 strikeouts vs. 35 walks 83.1 innings with only six home runs allowed.

Most importantly, Conley’s improvement this year has coincided with a subtle tweak to his mechanics that has him hitting 96 MPH with his fastball, so there is no reason to believe that his recent performance is not sustainable.


Troubles With the Marlins
Finally, Pelfrey used to face the Marlins fairly regularly when pitching in the same division with them when he was a member of the Mets, and the results were not pretty at 1-9 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 18 career starts vs. Miami. Conversely, this is Conley’s first ever start vs. the Tigers, which is usually to the advantage of the pitcher.

With all of this in mind, our recommendation is to back the Miami Marlins with Conley at close to a toss-up price visiting the Detroit Tigers and Pelfrey on Tuesday.

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Free MLB Pick:  Marlins +101
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
MLB Record: 45-36-2, +11.61

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