MLB Pick: Marlins Look To Continue Samardzija's Road Woes

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 1:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2016 1:47 PM UTC

It's Wednesday morning baseball for us on the West Coast, and our MLB handicapper sees a clear advantage for the home team and makes his MLB Pick!

San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins  
The Miami Marlins (60-53) hope to continue their home success against the San Francisco Giants (64-49) on Wednesday afternoon as they play the rubber game of their three-game series. The middle game in the series featured a dominant performance by Marlins’ pitching, as they threw a 3-hit shutout against the Giants. In the meantime, only 2 runs scored by Miami in the first inning ended up holding up for the win. In this game, the Marlins are favored by -134 on the money line at 5Dimes, while getting +155 after giving up 1.5 runs at Pinnacle. The O/U total is posted at both 8 and 8.5 on the board, depending on where you look.

Miami Marlins
Starting for the Marlins and looking to keep the scoreless streak going is David Phelps, who got his first start of the season after coming out of the bullpen last week. His first start went well, as Phelps pitched into the 5th inning on the road at Colorado without giving up an earned run, while striking out four batters and walking one. He’s been pretty dominant coming out of the bullpen this season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 73/23 K/BB rate, 1.14 WHIP, and .208 batting average against. His splits don’t present a weakness either, as Phelps is doing just as well against lefties and righties – at home and on the road. Phelps hasn’t seen much of the Giants lineup in his career thus far, but nobody on the current roster has had any success against him at all.


San Francisco Giants
The Giants counter Phelps with Jeff Samardzija, who by fielding independent pitching ERA terms is having his worst season since 2010 with the Cubs at 4.38. He’s still carrying a winning record though and has posted a 4.40 ERA, 104/36 K/BB rate, 1.23 WHIP, and .254 batting average allowed on the season. After a very strong start to the season, Samardzija has come off the rails a bit. After a 3.86 and 2.08 ERA in April and May, respectively, Samardzija has put up a 6.83, 5.64, and 6.43 ERA in June, July, and August. He’s given up 4 or more earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and has given up multi-home run games in three of his last four.


Final Analysis
These two teams have almost reverse O-U trends going, as the Giants offense has struggled of late and Miami’s pitching has been letting them down. San Francisco is 9-3-1 favoring the Under in their last 14 games, while Miami is 10-4 favoring the Over after Tuesday night’s game. Both of these teams hit pretty well in day games, though, which is something to consider. San Francisco is 26-13 SU in day games while averaging 4.9 runs per game, while Miami is 24-13 O-U after averaging .287 at the plate.

When I look at this matchup, I think that Samardzija has to regress positively at some point to his previous form. However, Samardzija hasn’t won a game on the road since May 19th, a span of eight starts in that situation. He’s just not good right now, his walks are up, and there is probably something physical wrong with him. Either way, it is hard for someone to trust a pitcher in that situation. Since the O-U trends are at MLB odds with each other, I’ll take the hot pitcher from the Marlins in this matchup and will take the home favorites at -132 at Heritage as my Wednesday afternoon MLB Pick.


Free MLB Pick: Marlins -132
Best Line Offered:at Heritage
2016 YTD MLB: 47-31-4, +13.96 Units

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