MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres ‘over’ 6½

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

While Zack Greinke sparkled in his Dodger debut, that was at home and he has very severe home/away splits. With Jason Marquis not sharp his first start for San Diego, go ‘over’ Thursday.

In what could be a much higher scoring game than the low posted total would indicate on Thursday night, Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers (5-3, 1-1 away) pay a visit to Jason Marquis and the San Diego Padres (2-6, 1-1 home) at Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Bookmaker Sportsbook is 6½ or this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -125.

The Padres slugged their way to a 9-3 victory in the series opener on Tuesday before the Dodgers evened the series with a 4-3 win last night in a game that still would have gone ‘over’ this total.

Greinke, the big off-season pitching acquisition by Los Angeles, sparkled in his Dodger debut vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing only two hits with six strikeouts and not a single walk. Masterful performances like that have been very common for Greinke when pitching at home at every Major League stop that he has made, however the fact that he has not brought that form on the road has held him back from achieving elite status.

You see, Greinke has always had some of the more severe home vs. away splits that you will ever see. Last season he split time with the Milwaukee Brewers of the National League and the Los Angeles Angels of the American League, and yet his career pattern held true to form.

Looking at his combined numbers for the entire year, Greinke finished 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with opposing batters hitting .222 off of him at home. On the road, he was a rather fluky 7-3 given his 3.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .272 opposing batting average. Two years ago in his only full year with the Brewers, Greinke was 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home and 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the road!

You get the idea, so do not expect a replay of last week’s masterpiece here in his first Dodger road start. Then there is also the issue of a Los Angeles bullpen that had allowed eight runs in six innings over the first two games of this series possibly blowing up this low total.

As for Marquis of the Padres, while he has been decent in a San Diego uniform, he has not done nearly enough to merit this low total. Marquis went 6-7 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 15 starts for the Padres after being acquired last season, and he even finished just 2-4 in seven starts in normally pitcher-friendly Petco Park while allowing the opposition to bat .278 off of him.

His first 2013 start was hardly awe inspiring either as he allowed five runs on six hits in six innings with only one strikeout vs. the Colorado Rockies, so look for both teams to generate enough offense to go ‘over’ this low total on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Dodgers, Padres ‘over’ 6½ (-125)

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