After combining for 23 hits and 11 runs yesterday I am going to back the momentum and over the total with the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians today. This line is set a bit too low in my opinion and I suggest adding the over to one of your MLB picks. With the Royals only scoring three runs yesterday I look for them to have better run production today, and for the Indians to have plenty of quality at-bats in their home park.
MLB odds makers have come out with a total of eight for this match up and usually I would say this makes sense, but in this matchup I do not see it. The good news is that at some places you can grab over the total on this contest at some pretty decent plus money odds. Right now at Pinnacle Sports is one place where you can get over the total of eight at +106.
Kansas City Royals
Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Royals and come in with a 4.58 ERS, 1.15 whip, and 30 strikeouts. He has been used mostly out of the pen but has made some starts recently. I really liked him when he pitched for Atlanta and he still has some quality stuff, but I think the Indians have more than enough offense to do some damage against him today. He had a nice bounce back outing from a horrible start against the White Sox where he allowed seven earned runs off of 11 hits in five innings. In that bounce back he allowed just two earned runs off of three hits in six innings against the Twins.
Offensively the Royals rank fourth in runs per game at 4.51, eighth in OPS at .736, and second in batting average hitting .271 as a team. They are one of the better road hitting teams in the major leagues but most of their important offensive statistics do drop on the road. Yesterday I think they had a tough match up against Carlos Carrasco but they still managed 11 hits off him but just couldn't get more timely hitting leaving nine guys on base.
Josh Tomlin gets the start for the Indians with a 2.85 ERA, 0.73 whip, 38 strikeouts, and a 5-1 record. He has been starting for Cleveland since mid August and has pitched well allowing just six earned runs in 13 innings at home. He has been pitching much better than his career stats of a 4.71 ERA and I think how he has pitched recently is more of an anomaly than the rule. Don't look for him to shut out or shut down a solid Royals offense.
The Indians rank 20th in runs per game at 4.11, 15th in OPS at .721, and 10th in batting average hitting .255 as a team. Most of their major statistics go up at home like their OPS which goes from .689 on the road to a solid .756 at home. Yesterday they produced eight runs off of 13 hits and I look for them to continue that momentum today.
This match up seems to be established more in the recent numbers and not in reality. Both of these pitchers are getting a little bit too much respect from the odds makers and I was surprised this line was under nine. For one of my MLB picks today and my over the total play of the day I will be adding the Royals and Indians to surpass the set total and have some nice production offensively today.