MLB Pick: Hot Bats With A Solid Starter On The Mound Gives Royals A Shot On The Plus ML To Upset Detroit

Ian Kennedy

Charles Stark

Monday, August 15, 2016 4:24 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 15, 2016 4:24 PM GMT

The Detroit Tigers are in the thick of the wildcard hunt in the American League as they come home off of their road trip today to take on the Kansas City Royals. MLB odds have Tigers in the favorite in this spot, however, Kansas City has won four of their last five games so is there value in backing the Royals?

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers
Oddsmakers have the Kansas City Royals at around a +129 underdog at most places. For my MLB pick, I'm going to take a shot with the Royals in this spot at +130 at Heritage sports. Although they don't hit as well on the road as they do at home they're playing good baseball right now and have a solid starter on the mound.

 

Kansas City Royals
Ian Kennedy gets the start for Kansas City and comes in with a 3.91 ERA and 1.20 whip winning his last start against the White Sox allowing one earned run in six innings. Back on July 20th Kennedy got rocked against the Cleveland Indians allowing seven earned runs along with four home runs in just four innings. However, excluding that game in nine out of his last 10 starts he has been extremely good allowing four runs just one time at most and in his last three games he has allowed a total of two earned runs off of just 13 hits in 19 innings of work. His last start in Detroit was also solid allowing just one earned run off of four hits in five innings, the run coming off a solo shot from Ian Kinsler. 

All that being said what I really like about backing him today on the plus money line is in his last 10 starts, the Cleveland game included, he has allowed at most six hits in any contest. I believe he gives the Royals a better than average chance of winning this game. At the plate, I have noted before how Kansas City is a much different hitting team at home than on the road where they can struggle at times. However, on this recent road trip that started in Minnesota, they have scored 21 total earned runs in three games and yesterday exploded for 11 runs off of 16 hits. Again, value -wise I think this is a good spot to back them here with a good pitcher and their offense coming in with some momentum.

 

Detroit Tigers
Daniel Norris takes the mound for Detroit coming off a one earned run off of seven hits in five innings performance at Seattle. He has only had a couple starts in Detroit this season as he has been back and forth from AAA in the majors and he has been decent for the most part. However, in his two home starts this season he has allowed five earned runs off of 14 hits in just 10 innings and outside of this season at home he has an ERA of 5.75 in his five starts. Being that Kansas City is coming in with some pretty hot bats I have a hard time believing he's going to be able to hold them down putting together consistent innings. 

Detroit is still statistically one of the better hitting teams in baseball and is coming off of a couple wins after going through a bit of a losing streak. Although they did score seven runs yesterday they have been less than stellar at the plate over the last 10 games averaging just 3.3 per contest. I mentioned they recently faced Kennedy but overall they have faced him twice this season. They have not had a lot of success against him garnering a total of three earned runs in 11 innings. Despite the fact, this is a good Detroit offense in the hunt for the playoffs I think value wise grabbing Kansas City on the plus money line, with MLB odds at +130, is the way to go.

 

Free MLB Pick: KC Royals +130 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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