MLB Pick: Grab Rays at Plus Odds to Top Red Sox Tuesday

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 11:32 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 11:32 AM UTC

Although both of these teams are pretty much out of the playoff race I think there is some good value on backing the Tampa Bay Rays today against the Boston Red Sox. After losing yesterday 8-7 and the teams combining for 21 hits I think Tampa Bay will bounce back today with a pitcher that starting to come around.

MLB odds
It makes a lot of sense that Boston is favored in this spot and right now MLB odds have them at around -130. This puts some good value on Tampa Bay, and the best value right now is at Bet Online sports book at +123. This line has already dropped a little bit since it opened and I expect it'll get closer to a pick before first pitch. For one of my MLB picks I'm going to take Tampa Bay at these plus money line odds.

Tamps Bay Rays
Matt Moore takes the mound for Tampa Bay and comes in with a 7.06 ERA, 1.66 whip, 32 strikeouts, and a 1-4 record. It wasn't too long back that Moore was considered one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball but since he has come back from injury he has struggled a lot. Today though, I want to back him in this spot because he seems to be coming around and is in a decent bounce back spot against specifically the Boston Red Sox. In his last outing he pitched well at home allowing zero earned runs off of two hits in seven innings pitched against Baltimore. In the game before that he faced Boston allowing six earned runs off of nine hits in just five innings, thus the reason I think he'll be solid to bounce back against them. In fact, he is a double bounce back spot being that in his last two starts against Boston he's been roughed up pretty badly.

Tampa Bay ranks 27th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.85, 19th in OPS at .715, and 21st in batting average hitting .250 as a team. Although statistically their average and OPS drop on the road the average more runs per game when they travel. Yesterday they had a lot of quality at-bats with 11 hits but got snake bit by a grand slam in the eighth inning. I think they can continue their momentum today.


Boston Red Sox
Henry Owens gets the start for Boston with a 4.33 ERA, 1.35 whip, 36 strikeouts, and a 3-2 record. The 23-year-old rookie has pitched pretty well at times this season, but has also got lit up on occasion. In his last two outings at home he allowed seven earned runs in less than two innings against the Yankees, but then bounced back nicely allowing just one earned runs in five innings to the Blue Jays. Today though is about value and although Moore has struggled I believe overall he is the better pitcher out of these two. The jury is still out on Owens but I think Tampa Bay should have a lot of quality at-bats against him.

Boston ranks third in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.66, fifth in OPS at .745, and fourth in batting average hitting .268 as a team. It has been interesting for them to be such a solid offensive force this season but with no record to show it. Their offensive statistics jump drastically in Fenway and they have been good against left-handers this entire season. Still, they are not immune to having a tough day at the plate and if Moore pitches like he is capable of then he will give Tampa Bay all they need to win this game.

This is all about value, and for one of your MLB picks I suggest backing Tampa Bay against Boston today. With both these teams out of the playoffs this is some good plus money value on a pitcher that might be back on track versus a rookie. Don't expect another high-scoring affair like yesterday, but do expect Tampa Bay to come out with the win.

Free MLB Picks: Rays +116 at BetOnline

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