MLB Pick on Eovaldi and Wood to Have Success

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, August 31, 2014 3:25 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

There could be a nice pitching duel down south Sunday evening when right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the Miami Marlins (66-68, 29-37 away) pay a visit to southpaw Alex Wood and the Atlanta Braves (71-65, 38-29 home) in the final game of a three-game weekend series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 5:10 ET.

The posted total at Bet365 is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.


Both Teams Clinging to Hope
The Braves had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 4-0 loss to the Marlins last night that evened up this series 1-1, and it was a sloppy performance as Atlanta committed three errors and hit into three double plays. The Braves are still very much in the playoff hunt, but it probably will not be as winners of the National League East as they trail the Washington Nationals by seven games. However they are just 1½ behind St. Louis for a wild card spot.

The quest for a playoff spot is much harder for the Marlins, although they did maintain a feint pulse by being the winning MLB pick last night. With the Cardinals splitting a doubleheader Saturday, Miami trails St. Louis by 5½ games for that final wild card spot with only 27 games remaining, with the Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates also ahead of the Marlins.


Wood a Future Stud
Do not be fooled by Wood’s 9-10 record this season as the 23-year-old is showing why he was so highly regarded while rapidly climbing up the farm system as he posted his sixth consecutive Quality Start by limiting the New York Mets to three runs on just five hits in seven innings of an unlucky 3-2 loss on Tuesday.

That leaves the young southpaw with a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and he has exhibited great command for someone of his age with 130 strikeouts vs. just 38 walks in 137 innings. That has helped lead to a 3.48 FIP and 3.36 xFIP that further validate Wood’s ERA and are further indications that he has pitched much better than his record.

It has been a mixed bag for Wood in two starts vs. the Marlins this season as he was roughed up in Florida but had an excellent outing against them here in Atlanta, where he allowed one run on just four hits with 11 strikeouts in eight innings


Eovaldi Loves Atlanta
Eovaldi got off to a very nice start this season, but he has leveled off especially by posting an ugly 7.53 ERA over his last three starts. That leaves him at just 6-9 with a 4.30 ERA for the season, although he still has a decent 1.28 WHIP and a good ratio of 117 strikeouts vs. 34 walks. Eovaldi has allowed just 11 homes runs in 27 starts, helping lead to a nice 3.30 FIP that is a full run better than his ERA, which is usually a good sign.

Eovaldi has also pitched well vs. the Braves in his brief career, posting a 2.35 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on 10 starts against them while holding Atlanta batters to a .207 batting average. And he has been especially tough here at Turner Field, allowing two runs or less in four of his last five starts here including not allowing a single earned run in three of those starts!


Braves Not Hitting Righties
To make matters a bit easier for Eovaldi, the Braves have continued to struggle against right-handed pitchers, against whom they are batting .238 overall this season and .226 over the last 10 games, during which they have averaged a measly 2.43 runs vs. righties.

Add this all up and expect a relatively low scoring affair in Atlanta on Sunday.

MLB Pick: Marlins, Braves ‘under’ 7 (+100)