MLB Pick on Dodgers, Marlins to Go ‘over’ in Miami

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, June 27, 2015 2:13 PM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 27, 2015 2:13 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.


A three-time Cy Young Award winner had not resembled one on the road this year, and that could fuel an ‘over’ at a very low total Saturday when said southpaw Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers (42-33, 15-20 away) pay a visit to right-hander Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins (30-45, 17-21 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Marlins Park in Miami, FL at 4:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Florida.

The posted total at Bodog is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -105.


National League West Leaders
The Dodders are the favorites to win the World Series on the latest MLB Future odds, and they won their third straight game in the series opener here last night 7-1 to get a little separation from the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants in the National League West, although the lead for Los Angeles is still just two games. It is encouraging that the three-game winning streak has come in the road, as the Dodgers are just 15-20 away from home.

The Marlins meanwhile have been a disappointment this season, which is why former manager Mike Redmond was fired and replaced by general manager Dan Jennings early last month. Miami is in fourth place in the National League East and 11½ games behind the first place Washington Nationals, and it has now been the losing MLB pick in five straight games and in eight of its last nine.


Kershaw Has Not Been Himself on Road
Kershaw is the two-time reigning Cy Young winner and he has taken home that hardware three times in all, but he has yet to really look like himself this year except for some brief stretches, as he is just 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP after losing to the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago Monday allowing three earned runs in seven innings.

Now obviously, most pitchers would love to have Kershaw’s stats this season, but we have become accustomed to better with Clayton having only himself to blame by setting his bar so high with some sub-2.00 ERA seasons! And Kershaw has particularly struggled on the road where he is 1-3 with a highly uncharacteristic 4.22 ERA.

Now he must contend with a Miami offense whose best split this season has been vs. left-handed pitchers here at home, with the Fish batting a potent .287 while averaging 4.64 runs in this circumstance.


Bad Peripherals for Koehler
Meanwhile, Koehler has had some nice moments while going 5-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season including holding the New York Yankees one run and three hits in seven innings while winning his last start, but consistency has not been his strong suit. In fact, over his last five starts, he has allowed one run, five runs, one run, six runs and one run respectively, and that alternating pattern would put him in line for stinker today.

More significantly, Koehler’s peripheral numbers do not support his ERA as he has bad command numbers with only 6.49 strikeouts vs. a high 3.42 walks per nine innings and he has benefited from allowing a low .266 BABIP, helping contribute to a nondescript 4.65 FIP and 4.40 xFIP, suggesting some negative regression on the horizon.

And once Koehler is in need of relief, the Miami bullpen has been struggling mightily with a collective 4.78 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last 10 games, raising the real possibility of allowing late tack-on runs that have ruined many ‘overs’ in games with low totals like this.


Huge ‘over’ Series
Finally, to say that the ‘over’ has dominated this head-to-head series would be a severe understatement, as it has now gone 37-9-5 in the last 51 meetings overall! The ‘over’ here on Friday night improved it to 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings in Miami.

Even with Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers, the combination of his road struggles and a low posted total could lead to a continuation of those patterns with another ‘over’ when Los Angeles visits Miami on Saturday.



MLB Pick: Dodgers, Marlins ‘over’ 7 (-105)

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