Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
A pair of promising young pitchers combined with a spacious ballpark should lead to an ‘under’ Tuesday night when Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets (46-53, 21-30 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Erasmo Ramirez and the Seattle Mariners (53-46, 25-26 home) in the second game of a three-game interleague series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.
The Mariners took the series opener 5-2 here last night in what was the first meeting between these teams since 2008! Thus the Mariners are still trying to hang in an American League West race that currently boasts the two teams with the best records in baseball as they trail the first place Oakland Athletics by 8½ games and the second place Los Angeles Angels by 6½. Just as importantly, the Mariners currently hold the second and last wild card spot.
If the standings hold as is, the AL West would become the second division in history to send three teams to the MLB Playoffs after the National League Central became the first to turn that trick last season.
The Mets meanwhile entered the All-Star break having won eight of their last 10 games, and they made it nine out of 11 vs. the San Diego Padres on Friday before dropping their last three straight games on the MLB Picks while managing a total of only three runs. This leaves New York in fourth place in the National League East and nine games behind first place Washington.
Back from the Minors
Ramirez is being recalled from Triple-A to take this start, but he has already displayed ability at the Major League level as he had allowed a total of two runs in 20 innings over his last four starts before being sent down including three scoreless outings. Thus the Mariners opted to recall Ramirez over the more highly regarded Taijuan Walker, who continues to toil in the minors for now.
Ramirez will be facing the Mets for the first time ever, which should make him even tougher to hit for a Mets’ team batting just .230 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging just 3.82 runs per nine innings against them overall this year as it is. Plus it seems unlikely that the New Yorker would suddenly put on their hitting shoes tonight in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball, as games at Safeco Field this year have averaged only 6.84 runs combined.
With that said, deGrom of the Mets should also appreciate these dimensions, and one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the New York organization entering this season appears to be living up to his billing. In fact deGrom has now allowed three runs or less in five straight starts, actually allowing two runs or less in four of those outings.
This leaves the rookie at a deceptive 3-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the year in 12 starts with 72 strikeouts vs. 28 walks in 73.2 innings. This will also be his first ever appearance vs. Seattle, again probably giving him the advantage vs. a Seattle offense batting a measly .220 vs. right-handers in its own home ballpark while scratching out a mere 3.35 runs per nine innings against them in the Emerald City.
Bullpens Should Do Their Jobs
Finally, both of these bullpens grade out well as the Seattle pen leads the entire Major Leagues with a 2.38 ERA while the Mets’ pen is fourth in the National League in ERA at 3.14, which should limit the amount of late tack-on runs here.
Therefore, go ‘under’ in this interleague matchup from Seattle on Tuesday.
Free Pick: Mets, Mariners ‘under’ 7½ (-120)