MLB Pick on Diamondbacks, Padres to stay ‘under’ the Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 15, 2015 6:39 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

 



Runs may be at a premium Wednesday night in probably the most pitcher friendly ballpark in the National League when Chase Anderson and the Arizona Diamondbacks (4-4, 1-1 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Brandon Morrow and the San Diego Padres (5-4, 4-2 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 9:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Arizona.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.


Teams Split First Two Games
This is the rubber game of this three-game set as the Diamondbacks took the series opener 8-4 on Monday before the Padres evened up the series behind a strong pitching performance by Odrisamer Despaigne 5-1 last night. That makes it four wins in five games for the Padres following a 1-3 start to the season to now get over .500 and move into third place in the National League West at this very early stage of the year, 1½ behind the first place Rockies.

The Diamondbacks are just one-half game behind the Padres at an even .500 at 4-4 after being the worst MLB picks in the entire Major Leagues last season at 64-98 overall, with that .395 winning percentage making them the only team in the majors below .400. That led to the firing of manager Kirk Gibson but remember that this team was beset with so many injuries in 2014 that only nine players that began the season with the team ended the year on the active roster.

Thus, look for some improvement this season for a team that is not totally lacking in talent.


Anderson Showed Nice Flashes as Rookie
And that nice talent includes the Arizona starting pitcher tonight Anderson, who is highly regarded and got off to a nice start as a rookie last season before tailing off late, although he still finished with a winning 9-7 record pitching for a last-place team.

Granted his late slide raised his ERA to 4.01 for his first season in the majors after it stood at a spiffy 3.16 after his first 15 starts in the big leagues, but that late slump could have been due to a career professional high in innings pitched as he began the season in the minor leagues before tossing another 114.1 innings for the Diamondbacks after his call-up on May 11th.

He should return to his good form again with his fresh start here and he allowed two earned runs or less in two of his three starts vs. the Padres as a rookie with all three starts coming back home at more hitter-friendly Chase Field. Anderson should appreciate the spacious dimensions of the very pitcher-friendly Petco Park in this, his first career start here.

It also helps that the Padres are only averaging 3.86 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitchers here in their own stadium.


New League Should Only Help
The San Diego starter Morrow has some fine seasons in the more offensive minded American League that employs a designated hitter, and he sparkled in his National League debut tossing seven scoreless innings vs. the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants last Friday while allowing only four hits and striking out seven, fulfilling the belief so far that he should pitch even better in the National League.

Adding Morrow was just one of many off-season moves by the Padres that made them contenders in the NL West, and it also helps Morrow’s cause that he is facing an Arizona lineup batting a mere .217 vs. right-handed pitchers through the early going and a lineup that has also been strikeout prone vs. righties, striking out 5.9 times per game against them. That plays into Morrow’s strength as he has 772 strikeouts in 742.2 career innings!


The Petco Factor
Finally, the six games here at Petco Park this young season have averaged a combined 7.00 runs, and that seems like a plethora of runs compared to the minuscule averages of past years. For example, the 81 games here at Petco Park last season averaged a measly 6.21 runs per game combined.

Do not look for that contest to exceed that average when you combine the quality of these starting pitchers and how the offenses have done vs. right-handed pitching, so go ‘under’ when Arizona visits San Diego on Wednesday.

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MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Padres ‘under’ 6½ (-102)