MLB Pick on Diamondbacks as Dogs with Ray vs. Mariners

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, July 27, 2015 1:48 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 27, 2015 1:48 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Monday.

The underdogs appear to have the pitching edge and thus should offer good value in a battle of southpaws Monday night when Robbie Ray and the Arizona Diamondbacks (46-51, 20-24 away) pay a visit to Mike Montgomery and the Seattle Mariners (46-53, 22-28 home) in the first game of a three-game interleague series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 10:10 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Arizona as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +114.


Neither Team Appears Playoff Bound
The Mariners had a lot of buzz when this season started as they won 87 games last season and added reigning home run champion Nelson Cruz to a lineup that was otherwise unchanged. However Seattle has disappointed at seven games under .500 and is in fourth place in the American League West, 9½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Angels and 6½ games behind Minnesota for the second wild card spot with six other teams between those clubs.

The Diamondbacks meanwhile hit the .500 mark on July 8th, but unfortunately they were then losing MLB picks in eight of their next nine games before winning three out of four games at home vs. the Milwaukee Brewers this past weekend. This leaves the Snakes in fourth place in the National League West, 8½ games behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers and 7½ games behind the World Champion San Francisco Giants for the second wild card spot.


Terrible Form for Montgomery
Montgomery, the son of former Major League pitcher Mike Montgomery, Sr., had a great start to his Major League career allowing two runs or less in six of his first seven starts, but the book is apparently out on him as he has a horrific 9.22 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over his last three starts with the Mariners as a team going 0-3 over those outings. Even his one Quality Start in this time only met the minimum requirement when he allowed three earned runs in six innings.

He was obviously hit very hard the other two starts, most recently getting lit up for eight runs (six earned) in just 2.2 innings by the struggling Detroit Tigers his last time out last Wednesday. And even his seemingly good 3.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP after his first 10 starts are misleading when you consider Montgomery has a weak command ratio of 6.36 strikeouts vs. 2.97 walks per nine innings and has benefitted from a .259 BABIP allowed, leading to a 4.01 FIP and 4.23 xFIP.


Nice First Season in National League
Fellow southpaw Ray was acquired from the Tigers by Arizona during the off-season, and he has enjoyed not having to face designated hitters any more as he has been very solid in his first year in the National League. You can basically ignore Ray’s 3-5 record as he is sporting an excellent 2.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and he has a great ratio of 50 strikeouts vs. 15 walks in 59.2 innings.

That command ratio lessens the chances that Ray’s success has been due to luck, and his peripherals seem to support his very good mainstream numbers. He is allowing a .286 BABIP that is a tad low, but that gets offset by a 69.0 percent stand rate that is also a touch on the low side, all of which ends up netting him a 2.63 FIP that is in line with the ERA. Furthermore, his 1.6 WAR is the best among Arizona starters!


Not Many Winning Streaks for Mariners
Finally, the Mariners are coming off of a 6-5 win over the Blue Jays Sunday in 10 innings, but that may not be a good thing for a team that is having a lot of trouble piecing together victories, as the Mariners are 7-24 in their last 31 games following a win. Seattle is also 7-21 in its last 28 games after scoring five runs or more in its previous game.

Those negative patterns combined with Arizona appearing to have the pitching edge gives the Diamondbacks good underdog value visiting Seattle on Monday.



MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +114

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