MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks ‘under’ 9½

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, April 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Apr. 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

The Diamondbacks and the Rockies continued a pattern of low scoring games vs. each other as Arizona won 3-2 last night, making the ‘under’ 7-1 the last eight meetings. Go ‘under’ again.

Expect yet another relatively low scoring game on Friday night in a head-to-head series that has been dominated by the ‘under’ as of late, as Juan Nicasio and the Colorado Rockies (14-8, 5-5 away) pay a visit to Brandon McCarthy and the Arizona Diamondbacks (13-9, 6-4 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -125.

The Diamondbacks won a 3-2 squeaker in the series opener here in the desert on Thursday, bringing the ‘under’ to 7-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these clubs including a perfect 4-0 this season, and yet it does not appear that the sportsbooks have adequately adjusted for that with another fairly large posted total tonight.

The Diamondbacks are currently on a 9-2 ‘under’ run overall keyed by very good pitching, as Arizona is now up to fourth in the National League with a 3.33 team ERA while also ranking third in the league in bullpen ERA at 2.57. Granted, McCarthy has not contributed much to that success while going 0-2 with a bloated 7.06 ERA in four starts in his first year in the National League after coming over from the Oakland Athletics, but he is a much better pitcher than that.

McCarthy was brutal in his first two starts in a Diamondback uniform, allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in 11.2 innings, and although he does not yet have a Quality Start for Arizona, he has been a bit better in his last two starts with both of those contests going ‘under’ including his last start against these Rockies.

In fact, this is a pitching rematch from Sunday in Colorado where McCarthy opposed Nicasio in a 5-4 Arizona victory, although McCarthy did allow all four runs on eight hits in six innings while getting no decision. What is interesting about McCarthy’s first year in Arizona though is that he has really only had four bad innings, with 15 of the 19 runs that he has allowed this year coming in those four frames out of 21.2 total innings!

It is pretty obvious that McCarthy is very talented after posting an ERA of 3.32 and 3.24 in his last two seasons with Oakland respectively, and he could easily regress back to that fine form if he avoids the few big innings that have plagued him in the early going.

Similarly, Nicasio is much better than his 5.31 ERA although he has at least managed to go 2-0. The problem with Nicasio has been his command, and he had to be pulled after 4.1 innings vs. the Diamondbacks Sunday despite allowing only two runs and three hits because he labored through 96 pitches, with his three walks not helping matters.

However, Nicasio has some very good stuff when he throws strikes, and as so often happens when there is a pitching rematch in consecutive starts Major League pitchers are usually very good at making adjustments when facing the same team in such quick order, so expect both of these hurlers to do just that.

Thus, look for the ‘under’ dominance in this head-to-head series to continue for at least one more game on Friday.


MLB Pick: Rockies, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 9½ (-125)

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