MLB Pick: Cardinals to stay alive in World Series Game 6 as Dogs

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, October 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play Wednesday.

The 2013 World Series could be decided on Wednesday night, but we are looking for the series to get extended to the maximum seven games when Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals visit John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox for Game 6 from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX with Boston leading the series 3-2.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has St. Louis as a road underdog for this contest at current odds of +108.

The Red Sox put themselves in a position of having two chances to wrap up this World Series at home by winning Game 5 by a score of 3-1 on the road in St. Louis with Jon Lester beating Adam Wainwright for the second time in the series, which is no easy feat.

We now get a second straight pitching rematch in this series as Wacha and Lackey locked horns in Game 2 here in Boston with Wacha and the Cardinals prevailing 4-2 in one of the three games out of five thus far that was won by the visiting team. Well, we are looking for St. Louis to make it four out of six for the road clubs here as Wacha should be considered an auto-play at an underdog price right now.

Yes, Wacha is a rookie, but he also been arguably the best pitcher of all the playoffs teams this post-season, and he has some hardware to validate that claim as he won the MVP Award of the NLCS by pitching 13.2 scoreless innings vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. All told, Wacha has allowed a grand total of three runs in four post-season starts while allowing just 11 hits in 27 innings with 28 strikeouts!

Furthermore, the three post-season runs that Wacha has allowed have come on two swings of the bat, which resulted in a solo home run by Pedro Alvarez of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NLDS and a two-run homer by David Ortiz in Game 2 of this series, one of only three hits Wacha allowed in the game with the piping hot Ortiz getting two of them. That start quieted the skeptics that believed Wacha would not pitch as well vs. a powerful American League lineup.

Now, Lackey was not terrible in that start as he allowed three earned run on five hits in 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts, but Wacha is in such raging form right now that just the slightest slip-up by Lackey could prove fatal and basically assure a Game 7.

Besides, consistency was not a strong suit for Lackey while going 10-13 during the regular season this year and he has now allowed at least three earned runs in two of his three post-season starts. While that would normally be considered acceptable, three runs might be too much to give up vs. Wacha, and remember that while the southpaw Lester has shut down the Cardinals twice in this series, they have been much more lethal vs. right-handed pitchers throughout the year.

In fact, going right up to the minute and combining the regular season and playoffs, St. Louis is batting .270 and averaging 5.15 runs per nine innings vs. right-handers, as compared to hitting .231 and averaging just 3.72 runs per nine innings vs. left-handed pitchers.

Thus, look for the Cardinals to give the sizzling Wacha enough runs off of Lackey to force a seventh and deciding game as St. Louis prevails at an underdog price in Game 6 from Boston Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Cardinals +108

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