Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
Perhaps the best pitcher in the American League right now can key an ‘under’ Monday night when Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox (43-41, 17-23 away) pay a visit to fellow southpaw and Cy Young Award hopeful Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox (36-43, 20-16 home) in the first game of a four-game series from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 8:10 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Chicago.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.
Fourth in Tight AL East
The Blue Jays are in fourth place in the American League East, but that standing loses meaning when you realize that are only two games behind the first place New York Yankees. Toronto generally wins with offense, leading the majors in runs scored and OPS besides ranking fourth on batting average. They may not resemble that team offensively here vs. one of the best pitchers in the game, but they do have a hot starting pitcher going in their own right.
The White Sox were expected to be improved this year, but it has not happened for the most part as they are in last place in the American League Central at 36-43, the same pace that saw them finish at 73-89 last year. However they had won four straight games before being the losing MLB pick 9-1 to the Baltimore Orioles Sunday, and they are four games over .500 at home at 20-16.
You would have a hard time finding a better pitcher in the American League than Sale right now, and he has a chance to make history tonight as he tied a Major League record by recording at least 10 strikeouts in his eighth straight start vs. the St. Louis Cardinals last Tuesday, although in what has been the story of his season, he received no decision despite allowing one run on a solo homer on six hits with 12 strikeouts in eight innings.
Sale is only 6-4 for the season, but make no mistake about it, he has Cy Young caliber numbers with 141 strikeouts in 103.1 innings vs. just 22 walks to go along with a 2.87 ERA and a tiny 0.97 WHIP. That strikeout rate of 12.28 per nine innings leads the Major Leagues and he leads the American League in WAR at 3.7, trailing only Max Scherzer of the National League in that department in the majors.
And as great a team as Toronto is offensively, Sale is two-for-two lifetime in Quality Starts against the Blue Jays allowing a total of four earned runs and just eight hits in 14 innings.
Buehrle on a Roll Too
Not to be outdone, the veteran Buehrle has turned back the clock this season while pitching the best ball he has pitched in years. Buehrle has now allowed two runs or less in six straight starts, most recently limiting the Boston Red Sox to one run on only four hits in seven innings last Wednesday.
That bring Buehrle to 9-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a very good 1.19 WHIP for the season, as he has made up for his low strikeout rate of 4.82 per nine innings with a good groundball rate of 48.0 percent, which should serve him better here on the grass of Chicago than it does on the artificial turf at home. And let us not forget that Buehrle once pitched a Perfect Game in this stadium when he was a member of the White Sox.
Buehrle has since allowed three runs or less in all three of his career starts vs. his former teammates, and he is now catching a Chicago lineup batting a pathetic .178 vs. left-handed pitchers here at home this season.
Great ‘under’ Run in Windy City
Finally, because of weak offense but some very good pitching, the ‘under’ is now 25-7-1 in the White Sox last home games 33 games. Additionally, the ‘under’ is a phenomenal 20-4-2 the last 26 times the White Sox have been favored!
With two good pitchers in great current form, look for those ‘under’ trends to continue when Toronto ventures into the Windy City to visit the Chicago White Sox on Monday.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays, White Sox ‘under’ 7½ (-104)