MLB Pick: Bet Tigers vs. Indians to go 'Under'

Jeff Grant

Friday, July 5, 2013 12:29 PM GMT

Justin Masterson hasn’t had much success against the Tigers, but he could slow them down.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB betting lines for this American League Central matchup at Progressive Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

For more MLB betting info, don't forget to check out our Daily Pitching Report!

Road trippin’ 

Detroit is 4-3 on its current 11-game road trip, which includes an 11-1 blowout victory over the Toronto Blue Jays as -133 favorites, while going OVER the betting total for the third time in four contests.

The Tigers are 1-6 as road underdogs of +100 to +125 during the 2013 campaign, with the OVER going 4-3 in that situation.

Glad to be home

Cleveland went 7-4 on its recently completed 11-game trip away from home, but it did drop final two contests with the Kansas City Royals, including a 10-7 setback as +127 underdogs Thursday.

The Indians are 24-15 overall at this ballpark, including a money-making 9-3 record as favorites of -125 to -150.

Porcello

Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (4-6, 5.21 ERA) has picked up the lost in his last three efforts, including a 3-1 road setback to the Tampa Bay Rays last time out, as he allowed three runs and eight hits over six frames.

The right-hander is 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in eight road games (seven starts), issuing seven walks and striking out 30 batters in 39.2 combined innings.

In 17 career games versus the Indians, Porcello has tallied a 6-3 record and 3.87 ERA, including a 6-4 home win on June 8.

Masterson

Indians starting pitcher Justin Masterson (10-6, 3.48 ERA) has alternated wins and losses over his last three outings, as he comes off a 4-0 complete game victory on the road against the Chicago White Sox.

The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.29 ERA in nine home outings, surrendering just two home runs in 63 combined frames.

In 15 lifetime appearances (12 starts) versus the Tigers, Masterson has compiled a 2-7 record and 5.09 ERA, including a 4-1 road defeat on June 9th.

[gameodds]3/238070/?r-1=349-43-192/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their MLB picks Friday, as the UNDER is 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings in this series when played in Cleveland.

There’s no doubt that much of the action will land in the OVER in this matchup, which could lead to this number climbing to nine.

It’s also important to point out that Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is listed as questionable to due to some back issues that caused him to miss Thursday’s series finale with the Blue Jays.

A contrarian play, as I believe both teams are a bit fatigued after their recent schedules.

MLB Pick: Tigers/Indians going 'Under' 8.5 at William Hill