MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox ‘under’ 9½

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, April 11, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Chris Tillman of the Orioles started living up to his potential last season and he was brilliant in his last two starts vs. the Red Sox. Alfredo Aceves has also pitched well vs. the O’s so go 'under'.

The ‘under’ seems to have some sneaky value on Thursday night as the emerging Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (4-4, 3-2 away) pay a visit to the versatile Alfredo Aceves and the Boston Red Sox (5-3, 1-1 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9½ or this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -114.

After Boston took the series opener 3-1 on Monday, the Orioles rallied for five runs in the ninth inning last night to win 8-5 while beating up on the new Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan to even up both this series and their record on the young season at 4-4.

You may recall that the Orioles shocked the world last season when after being picked to finish dead last in the supposedly stacked American League East before the season, they instead led the division for much of the year and ultimately finished second and made the playoffs as a wild card team. They then beat the Texas Rangers in Arlington in the wild card game before losing to the Yankees in the maximum five games in the ALDS.

Now most experts chalked that season up to pure luck because of Baltimore’s extraordinary success in one-run and extra inning games, and thus the Orioles are not getting much respect on the future odds this season. While that may very well be true, one thing about 2012 that was probably not luck was the emergence of tonight’s starter Tillman.

Remember that Tillman was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in all of baseball when he first came up to the Major Leagues in 2009, but he did not live up to the hype. That all changed last year though when he went 9-3 with a sparkling 2.93 ERA in 15 starts, and the best news is that he does not turn 25-years-old until this Monday.

More importantly in regards to this game, Tillman was brilliant his last two starts vs. Boston last season, first allowing one run on six hits in six innings here at Fenway Park and then allowing only an unearned run and just one measly hit over eight masterful innings in Baltimore.

The Red Sox counter with Aceves, who has served every pitching role imaginable while in a Boston uniform from spot starter to long reliever to setup man to closer! Aceves is currently moving into the starting rotation spot vacated by the disabled John Lackey, and he has had some success during his spot starts for the Red Sox in the past.

Best of all, regardless of Aceves’ role, he has always had success vs. the Orioles while going 5-2 and posting a 2.31 ERA in 25 career appearances against them. With that in mind, look for both hurlers to pitch well enough to keep this final total run output in the single-digits on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/224509/238-19-93-92-1096/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Orioles, Red Sox ‘under’ 9½ (-114)