MLB Pick: Angels vs. Mariners Tilt Will Provide Plenty Of Runs

Jay Pryce

Saturday, May 14, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

The Mariners and Angels tussle in the second of a three-game series tonight in Seattle. Can LA it take two in a row from their AL West rivals? Get your free pick with analysis here.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (14-21) – Jhoulys Chacin (1-2, 5.40 ERA)
The Angels rallied from three runs down in the eighth inning against the Mariners last night, taking the opener 7-6 of a three-game road series. The victory snapped a six-game skid, and gave manager Mike Scioscia's men just their third victory in their last 13 attempts.

L.A. is beat up. The injury bug is biting early this season. On Monday, the team learned ace Garrett Richards needs Tommy John surgery and is out for the season with a high-grade UCL tear. The news came just days after learning sure-handed shortstop Andrelton Simmons will miss at least six weeks to a thumb injury.

Pitching is poor right now. Since April 27, the staff allows 5.8 runs on 10.8 hits per game. In the 13-game stretch, foes have scored four or more runs in all but two contests.

In an effort to shakeup a starting rotation with an ERA over 4.60 on the season, and to help fill the void left by Richards' absence, the Angels acquired Jhoulys Chacin from the Braves for minor-league pitcher Adam McCreery on Wednesday. He'll make his first start for L.A. tonight.

Despite an eight-year MLB career, Chacin has never faced the Mariners. Norichika Aoki has squared off against the Venezuelan national the most, hitting .364 (4 for 11) with a homerun and a double. Big-hitting Nelson Cruz and catcher Steve Clevenger are hitless in eight total plate appearances.

Chacin’s former teams are 6-15 when the veteran hurler takes on an opponent averaging more than 4.3 runs per game and on the road. He and the bullpen allow 4.0 runs per contest in this situation, and Chacin has failed to put in a quality start in his last 10 outings. Seattle crosses the plate 4.51 times per game, ninth-best in the majors.

Offensively, power and run production is scant for the Angels thus far. Their 3.62 runs per game ranks 25th in MLB. Despite a lineup featuring former MVPs Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, their .365 slugging percentage is third worst in the majors and .82 home runs fewest outside of the Phillies and Braves.


 

Seattle Mariners (21-14) – Hisashi Iwakuma (1-4, 4.19 ERA)
Hisashi Iwakuma gets the nod from skipper Scott Servais. The former All Star is off to his worst start in his MLB career, going 1-4 with a 4.19 ERA But the Angels may be the best opponent for the sinker-baller to build some confidence.

Seattle is 10-4 versus the Angels when Iwakuma commands the hill, returning slightly more than 50 percent profit to bettors. At Safeco, the AL West leaders are 7-1 with Iwakuma and the staff holding L.A. to 1.9 runs on 6.9 hits per contest. He's stymied Trout and Pujols to a .231 and .143 batting average respectively in more than 40 plate appearances apiece.

Seattle is crushing the ball. Fueled by Robinson Cano's 12 home runs, second most in MLB, the team's 1.4 longballs per game are fourth best in the bigs. In the last 10 games, the lineup is scoring 5.3 runs on 10.0 hits per tilt.

Despite Seattle's hot start, it is not playing well at home as chalk. Going 5-8 as the betting favorite at Safeco Field this season, it is scoring just 2.8 runs per game in the pitcher-friendly park.

 

Final Analysis
One of these two starters will likely slip up, allowing for runs early-on. We'll jump on the Over as offered by the MLB odds through the first five innings as our free MLB pick

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992699, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick:  Over 7½ -110
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage