Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
A very low total could lead to a rather easy ‘over’ Wednesday night when southpaw Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers (58-92, 30-46 away) pay a visit to right-hander Jeff Samardzija and the Oakland Athletics (83-67, 45-28 home) in the second game of a three-game series from O.co Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 10:05 ET.
The posted total at Bet365 is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -120.
Teams went ‘over’ Tuesday
The Rangers have been the worst MLB picks in all of baseball this season at 58-92, but they have suddenly gotten hot out of the blue as they swept a three-game series at home from the Atlanta Braves this past weekend and then made it four straight wins by taking the series opener here last night 6-3 in a game that went over the posted total of 7.
The Athletics actually had the best record in baseball for a huge chunk of this season, but things started going downhill when they traded their biggest run producer Yoenis Cespedes in the Jon Lester trade, and not only are they suddenly now 10½ games behind the Los Angeles Angels in the American League West, but they are also in a fight to make the playoffs. Yes they currently hold the top wild card spot, but they are also two games from being out of the playoffs.
Those two games are Oakland’s margin over the Seattle Marines, who are currently on the outside looking in at one game behind the Kansas City Royals for the second wild card spot.
Is Holland For Real?
A key reason why this total is set so low is because Holland has done his best impersonation of Cy Young in his three starts since his belated seasonal debut on September 2nd after missing the first five months following off-season knee surgery. Holland has unbelievably allowed a grand total of two runs in 21 innings with 17 strikeouts not a single walk over those first three starts, translating to a spiffy 0.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP!
Before getting carried away however, consider that this is still Derek Holland we are talking abut, he of the current 4.27 career ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP and a .261 batting average allowed lifetime. We attribute his hot start to randomness, and yet this total is set as if Holland will continue his blazing start. While that is possible, we are more inclined to believe that reality will soon set in and that this could be a golden spot the cash a gifted ‘over’ at a deflated number.
And remember that Holland posted just one Quality Start in his four outings vs. Oakland last season, recording a 5.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while generously allowing Athletics’ batters to hit .294 off of him in 2013.
Not Quite What A’s Hoped For
Also, while Samardzija has had several strong outings in an Oakland uniform such as when he tossed seven scoreless innings vs. the White Sox in Chicago last time out, he has been mostly inconsistent since coming over from the Chicago Cubs in another deal by Billy Beane that has not quite worked out as well as he expected this year.
And even on the occasions when “Shark” has pitched well, the Oakland bullpen has blown up late leads for him several times, leaving him with a 4-5 record since coming to the American League. It does not help his case that a Texas offense that has struggled for most of the season has suddenly hit .266 overall in the last 10 games.
Low Total Even for Oakland
Now granted O.co Coliseum is one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball because of its extensive foul territory and because the ball does not carry that well here at night. However, this posted total is low even by Oakland’s standards as A’s home games have averaged a combined 8.19 runs this season.
Thus, we expect these teams to score more than enough runs to get ‘over’ this very low posted total on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Rangers, Athletics ‘over’ 6½ (-120)