MLB Overnight Odds To Stay Ahead Of The Curve This Wednesday

Ian Cameron

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 6:00 PM GMT

Let's take a look at MLB Overnight Betting Lines for the games taking place on Wednesday, May 4 featuring a trio of MLB picks that should be high scoring on the Wednesday slate.

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
I don’t often endorse betting Overs in early afternoon getaway day games but this matchup should produce runs in bunches as the Giants face the Reds on Wednesday afternoon.

Jake Peavy is an absolute disaster area right now and he got absolutely crushed for 6 runs in just 2 innings of his last start against the NY Mets with 5 walks allowed as well in that outing. His road ERA now sits at 18.00 on the season getting hammered by the aforementioned Mets and the Rockies in his two road starts for 12 runs on 15 hits in just 6 innings of work. Great American Ballpark will be every bit as tough a place for him to pitch in and the fact he has yielded 3 home runs so far in 3 starts doesn’t bode well for success for the aging Peavy here in Cincinnati on Wednesday. 

On the flip side, Dan Straily is an extreme fly ball pitcher and has survived his first three starts with minimal damage allowing 3 runs or less to Colorado, Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh but his 3.38 ERA doesn’t tell the entire story as he has a FIP and xFIP both well above 4 indicating he isn’t pitching as well as that ERA shows. Straily is not a likely candidate to pitch deep and that means the Reds horrendous and MLB worst bullpen will see plenty of late action and provide a good chance for the Giants to score runs not only early in this game but also late as well just like we saw on Monday night in their 9-6 win.

The Over on the early MLB odds is a perfect 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams heading into Tuesday and I expect this game to also find its way up and Over the total of 9 at +100 which is available at Bookmaker.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 9 +100
Best Line Offered:  at Bookmaker

 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I recommended a winning bet against Mike Leake last Friday night in his most recent start against Washington and we were rewarded with a 5-4 Nationals win. I will continue to fade Leake here as he returns to the mound to face the Philadelphia Phillies. Mike Leake is a 'bet against' pitcher for me right now as he is a hittable starter right now as evidenced by his 5.83 ERA allowing 22 runs on 33 hits in 29.1 innings this season. Leake has an extremely low 5.4% swinging strike rate which is a career worst for him. He has been giving up fewer softer hit balls and has had an increase in hard hit balls/line drives so far this season and that is a recipe for potential disaster.

Adam Morgan will get the start for the Phillies and the lefty doesn’t appear to have a ton of upside or staying power in any Major League rotation. He allowed 3 runs on 5 hits in 5.1 innings in his first start of the season against Cleveland. He is not likely to pitch deep so the Phillies suspect bullpen is likely to get some work in this one and could lead to late runs for the St. Louis Cardinals.

I think a look toward the Over in this game certainly offers betting value at a generous number of 7.5 runs.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 7½ -120
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline

 

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Here is another game that should offer plenty of run scoring potential. Clay Buchholz has been on a rapid decline here in the 2016 season as he’s been hit hard with a 6.51 ERA allowing 20 runs on 31 hits in 27.2 innings of work this season and also surrendered 4 home runs. He allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in 6.1 innings in his last start against Atlanta which has a feeble lineup and that speaks volumes and raises a big red flag to me that Buchholz is a very hitable pitcher at this point in time.

The Chicago White Sox lineup has started to get on track scoring 4+ runs in 8 of their last 10 games and should be able to take advantage of a struggling Clay Buchholz here. On the flip side, Chicago veteran lefty John Danks has been easily the worst pitcher and weak link on an otherwise solid starting rotation. Danks has a 7.25 ERA allowing 20 runs on 28 hits in 22.1 innings pitched over a span of 4 starts and has also yielded an alarmingly high 5 home runs this season. Danks was hammered by the Red Sox in his lone start of 2015 against them giving up 7 runs on 9 hits in just 4.1 innings of work.

Even though Boston has struggled at the plate at times against lefties this season, it is clear to me that Danks is not serving up many pitches that are missing opposing bats these days and the Red Sox have had success against him in the past so I expect them to score their share of runs in this one. Both teams are trending Over right now: Boston is 5-3-1 to the Over in their last 9 games and Chicago is 5-1-1 to the Over in their last 7 games.

The total for this game is currently at 8.5 and priced as low as -118 at Heritage Sports and I believe that asking each team to score at least 4 runs in this game which would cash our ticket, isn’t asking a lot so I will recommend your MLB pick on this game to go Over the total.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 8½ -118
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage