MLB Overnight Lines with Betting Value for May 15

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, May 14, 2017 11:20 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 14, 2017 11:20 PM UTC

Sometimes the best betting value on a Major League Baseball game can be the overnight lines if you are wise enough to judge perhaps when a key player or two might sit out or any other edge. Here are two games I recommend for Monday.

Rays At Indians (7.5)

This is tied for the lowest total on the board with Brewers-Padres but I still like the ‘under.’ Great pitching matchup between Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer and Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco.

Archer (3-1, 3.04) tied for the major-league lead with a career-high 19 losses in 2016 but is back pitching to his previous All-Star level. I actually think the Rays will end up trading him for a couple of top prospects. Keep an eye on the Cubs in that regard. Archer started his career in that organization. He comes off eight shutout innings last Wednesday in a win over the Royals, striking out 11 for the second game in a row. Kansas City didn’t even get a runner to second base until the seventh inning. It was Archer’s third straight quality start. Archer had been 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five career starts against the Royals before Wednesday. It’s the third time that Archer has thrown eight shutout innings with 10 or more strikeouts in his career and first since 2015.

Perhaps Archer can end another losing streak here as he’s 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA vs. the Tribe. Edwin Encarnacion has three homers in his career off Archer but is just 8-for-47 against him with nine strikeouts. Francisco Lindor is 2-for-5 off him.

The Indians’ Carrasco (4-2, 1.86) is fifth in the American League in ERA and first with a WHIP of 0.77. He comes off a dominant effort vs. the Blue Jays, shutting them out on three hits over seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. Carrasco is a fine pitcher but also getting some good fortune as evidenced by his .211 BABIP. Carrasco beat the Rays in his lone start against them last year in allowing one run over eight innings. Evan Longoria is just 2-for-19 off him. Colby Rasmus is 3-for-10 with a homer.

Free MLB Pick: ‘Under’ 7.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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 Braves At Blue Jays (-135)

Toronto was one of the most disappointing teams in baseball for a while but is starting to round into shape with a five-game winning streak – although it remains in the AL East basement. Toronto swept four games from Seattle over the weekend, holding the Mariners to six total runs. Kevin Pillar homered with two outs in the ninth inning Sunday for the first walk-off HR of his career. The last Blue Jays center fielder to hit a walk-off home run was Vernon Wells, who did it against New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera on July 20, 2006. The Jays saw left fielder Steve Pearce leave in the second with a sore right calf.

Toronto goes with right-hander Mike Bolsinger here; he’s in the rotation for the injured Francisco Liriano. Bolsinger allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings against Cleveland in his first start of the season on May 9. He spent last season with the Dodgers and was 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA. Matt Kemp has seen him more than any Atlanta hitter, going 2-for-9 with a homer and three strikeouts. Freddie Freeman is 2-for-3 with two extra-base hits.

We could be seeing the end of the career of 43-year-old Braves starter Bartolo Colon as he’s 1-4 with a 7.22 ERA. The Braves signed him simply to eat innings and perhaps flip at the trade deadline, but he has no value right now. Colon has allowed opponents to hit .375 in his past four starts and given up 23 runs over that span. His ERA was the worst among 99 qualified major league starters entering Sunday’s games. Colon’s .301 opponents’ average overall is the eighth-highest among MLB starters, and his 895 opponents’ OPS is the sixth-highest.

Unfortunately, because the Braves will add the DH for this interleague game we won’t get to see Colon bat, which is always an adventure and usually humorous. The Jays’ Jose Bautista is 4-for-15 career off him with a homer and five walks.

Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays -135Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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