MLB Overnight Lines with Betting Value for June 26

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, June 25, 2017 10:23 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 25, 2017 10:23 PM UTC

We browse the early MLB odds board in search of betting value on Monday’s slate. Read on for selections on two games that will maximize your profits.

Rangers At Indians (-160)

This is the only game on Monday’s abbreviated schedule that features two American League playoff teams from last year. Texas of course win the AL West but fell to Toronto in the ALDS, while Cleveland took the AL Central and won the pennant.

The Indians opened the 2017 season in Arlington and swept the Rangers by a combined score of 21-14. The finale of that series was a bit of foreshadowing for this year’s Texas team in the bullpen as then-closer Sam Dyson imploded in the ninth inning as the Tribe scored five runs – thanks largely to Francisco Lindor’s first career grand slam – to win 9-6. The Rangers’ bullpen has been awful this season, a big reason for their struggles, and Dyson was DFA’d and then traded a few weeks ago.

It’s lefty Cole Hamels (2-0, 3.03) on the mound for Texas. It’s his first start in the majors since April 26 as he has been on the disabled list with a strained right oblique. Hamels threw 81 pitches in his final rehab start last Wednesday and then got through a bullpen session on Friday with no issues. Hamels is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts vs. the Indians. Lindor is 3-for-10 career with a homer against him.

Cleveland starts Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 2.99). I previewed his game here at SBR last Wednesday in Baltimore and backed Carrasco in a big way – and he paid off by throwing six shutout innings and striking out 10 in a 5-1 Cleveland win. He is +308 units on the season, and the Indians have only lost one of his past nine. Carrasco won in Texas on April 4, giving up two runs and four hits over 5.2 innings.

Free MLB Pick: Indians -160Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Twins At Red Sox (Total 8.5)

Could this be a wild-card game preview? It’s possible, although I don’t see the Twins realistically staying in playoff contention. But let’s just say these two teams, who both hold spring training in Fort Myers, Fla., did play in a wild-card game. Assuming they were available, both Minnesota and Boston would surely start the pitchers in that game that they will in Monday’s series opener.

For the Twins, it’s Jose Berrios. The 23-year-old was terrible as a rookie in 2016, going 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and was good for a WAR of minus-1.7. Berrios is a totally different guy this year at 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA. Batters hit .310 off him a year ago and now it’s just .181. He has reached the eighth inning in four starts this season after tossing six-plus innings just once over his 14 outings in 2016.

Berrios has received a decision in every start this year as well, which is somewhat unusual, and has won the past four – giving up exactly two runs in each. Berrios has benefited from some batted-ball luck (.227 BABIP) but he was the franchise’s No. 1 pitching prospect for a reason. He has yet to face Boston in a regular-season game.

It’s AL Cy Young betting favorite Chris Sale (9-3, 2.85) for the Red Sox. He has made 15 starts this season and 13 have been quality. He won in Kansas City last time out, allowing three runs and four hits over 8.1 innings with 10 strikeouts – he leads the majors with 146 Ks and 10 games of double-digit strikeouts. Since the mound was set at its current distance in 1893, the only other pitchers to reach 10n double-digit strikeout games as few games into a season as Sale were Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez in 1999 (15th game) and Randy Johnson in 2000 (12th game) and 2001 (14th game).

Boston won two of three at Minnesota in early May and Sale won the finale, allowing four runs (one of his non-quality starts) over six innings with 10 strikeouts. Dating to his White Sox days, Sale has given up 29 runs in 29 innings over his last six meetings with Minnesota. So what? I’m still going ‘under’ here.

Free MLB Pick: ‘Under’ 8.5Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

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