MLB Overnight Lines with Betting Value for July 3

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, July 2, 2017 10:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 2, 2017 10:37 PM UTC

We browse the early MLB odds board in search of betting value on Monday’s slate. Read on for selections on two games that will maximize your profits.

Mets At Nationals (Total 8.5)

This is tied for the lowest total on Monday’s board along with Pirates-Phillies. It’s a good pitching matchup in the series opener from Nationals Park (6:05 p.m. ET).

Lefty Steven Matz (2-1, 2.67) takes the bump for the visitors. The Mets haven’t had much good news this season with all their injuries, but Matz has been a bright spot, albeit in just four starts as he started the season on the disabled list. He dominated the Marlins in Miami last time out, shutting out the Marlins on six hits over seven innings. He has gone seven innings in three of his four outings.

In addition, Matz has now pitched at least six innings without allowing a run in eight of his 32 career starts (25 percent). That ties the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (20 of 80) for the highest such percentage among the 152 major-league pitchers that have made at least 30 starts over the last three seasons. Matz’s lone non-quality start in 2017 was his second one at home against Washington on June 16. He allowed four runs and eight hits over seven in a loss. The Nats’ Daniel Murphy is 3-for-9 career off him with a homer and two RBIs. Michael Taylor is 3-for-8 with a dinger. Ryan Zimmerman, second in the NL in batting, is 0-for-6.

The Nationals have struggled offensively since losing shortstop Trea Turner to a broken wrist Thursday against the Cubs. He’ll probably miss a couple of months. Turner leads the majors with 35 steals and had 22 of them in June.

It’s Stephen Strasburg (9-2, 3.51) on the mound for Washington. He beat the Cubs last time out, allowing two earned and striking out 13 in seven innings. It was the former No. 1 overall pick’s eighth career game with at least 13 Ks, fourth highest total among active pitchers. Strasburg won at the Mets on June 17, giving up two runs over 5.1 innings. Curtis Granderson struggles against him, going 3-for-22.

Free MLB Pick: ‘Under’ 8.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Blue Jays At Yankees (-128)

New York returns home after going 2-4 on a road trip to the South Side of Chicago and Houston. One of the top prospects in baseball, outfielder Clint Frazier, made his MLB debut on Saturday against the Astros and was 2-for-4 with a homer and double.  Frazier was the second Yankee since World War II to have a pair of extra-base hits in his big-league debut, joining Mike Pagliarulo from July 1984. Frazier, the key piece back in the Andrew Miller trade last summer with the Indians, then went 0-for-3 on Sunday.

The Bombers go with Masahiro Tanaka (6-7, 5.56). Those numbers aren’t good, but he has been much better over his past two, giving up two runs and nine hits over 14 innings – both Yankees wins. He hasn’t allowed a homer after surrendering 18 over a nine-start stretch. Tanaka beat the visiting Blue Jays on May 2 (6.1 IP, 4 ER). Steve Pearce hits him well, going 5-for-12 with two homers.

The Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman (8-4, 3.41) could be a little gassed here as he threw a career-high 119 pitches in his last start against Baltimore. He shut out the Orioles for 7.2 innings on five hits. Stroman hasn’t gotten a decision in two starts this year vs. the Yankees with a 7.00 ERA. Aaron Judge is 3-for-5 off him with a homer.

The Yankees haven't won a series since sweeping Baltimore June 9-11, but I like them here.

Free MLB Pick: Yankees -128Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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