MLB Overnight Lines: A Preview To Braves' Downfall To D-Backs

Ian Cameron

Saturday, May 7, 2016 6:53 PM GMT

Saturday, May. 7, 2016 6:53 PM GMT

Sports handicapper Ian Cameron provides a look at MLB Overnight Betting Lines for the games taking place on Sunday, May 8.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
We have been beating the ‘Over’ drum throughout this Milwaukee/Cincinnati series expecting runs in bunches involving a pair of lineups in better form of late and two suspect starting rotations and two even worse bullpens. I think that drum has the potential to create some lovely music once again on Sunday that can turn into baseball betting profits for us. We have a matchup of two offenses in good form, two starters with question marks and two horrific bullpens (Milwaukee 28th and Cincinnati 30th ranked bullpens in MLB) and it should provide the ingredients for a high scoring contest between the Brewers and Reds on Sunday afternoon.

Junior Guerra was mediocre in his first start of the season for Milwaukee against San Francisco allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings of work and will be in tough here against Cincinnati as Guerra has a very low 33.3% ground ball rate which has the potential to be problematic against a Reds lineup which is getting good contributions at the plate right now from the likes of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Adam Duvall and they have scored 5+ runs in five of their last six games.

John Lamb will get the nod for Cincinnati and while he allowed just a single run in 6 innings in his first spot start against San Francisco, he had 3 walks which shows he struggled with control and his FIP and xFIP stemming from that outing are both at least 2 runs higher than his 1.50 ERA and it shows he did not really pitch anywhere close to as well as the base line stats would indicate. I don’t expect either starter to pitch deep into the game which means two of the absolute worst bullpens will be in play for much of the late innings once again. The total is currently at 8.5 and is yet another bargain number to play up and Over the total based on the MLB odds.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 +105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
It has been a disappointing first month of the season for Arizona lefty Patrick Corbin who has not settled in yet but he did improve at least to some degree in his last outing against Miami allowing 3 runs in 5.1 innings. He does have better numbers pitching away from Chase Field as he has a 2.50 ERA in three road starts this season against the LA Dodgers, San Diego and Miami. Corbin should benefit from facing a very weak hitting Atlanta team having dominated the Braves in his previous two starts against them. Corbin has held Atlanta scoreless in 13.2 innings of work in his career against them over a span of two starts. Atlanta is hitting just .204 against lefties and averaging 2.35 runs per game.

On the flip side, Mike Foltynewicz has never impressed me as a starter with this team going back to last season. He had a 5.71 ERA in 15 starts with Atlanta in 2015 and he was lit up in his first start of the 2016 season with the Braves last time out against the NY Mets allowing 4 runs on 8 hits and lasting just 4.2 innings. Foltynewicz was roughed up big time in two starts against Arizona last season allowing 11 runs on 17 hits in 10.1 innings of work over a pair of starts against the Diamondbacks and the Braves lost both of those games.

Atlanta is now 7-21 on the season and also own an embarrassing 1-13 record on their home field here at Turner Field. I don’t advise laying a significant price with a team on the road often but Arizona -134 at Heritage Sports is a perfectly reasonable price for an MLB pick to lay with the better starter, better bullpen and much better team in this game.

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Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -135
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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