MLB Oddsmakers Have it Right: Pick Nationals vs. Phillies

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 12, 2014 2:34 PM GMT

Saturday, Jul. 12, 2014 2:34 PM GMT

Our MLB betting odds guru Ross Benjamin analyzes today’s National League contest between the Nationals and Phillies. If you're are looking for looking for the sharpest edge necessary with your sports betting today, then this article is a must read.

NL East Battle in the City of Brotherly Love
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals on Saturday at Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with the first pitch slated for 7:10 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds at the time of this writing, the Nationals were a -120 money line road favorite and the posted total is 7.0. Washington has won 11 of the last 15-meetings between these two clubs.

 

The Starting Pitchers
The Washington Nationals will send their ace Steven Strasburg to the mound today, which certainly influences our MLB picks today. Strasburg has gone 10-9 against the money line this season with a 3.47 ERA. For a lot of starting pitchers that would be acceptable, but for the superbly talented Nationals hurler it’s considered well below par. The powerful right-hander has gone a disappointing 3-5 against the money line on the road this season with a lofty 5.13 ERA. On a more positive note, Strasburg is 4-1 against the money line since the start of the 2013 season versus the Phillies. In those 5-starts he’s posted a microscopic 0.75 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a better than 11:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

The Phillies will go with their veteran southpaw Cole Hamels on the hill. Hamels has pitched much better than his 6-9 money line record this season would indicate. In those 15-starts he’s posted a stellar 2.87 ERA. Hamels has gone 3-0 against the money line in his last 3-starts versus the Nationals with a stellar 2.14 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Hamels has also gone 4-0 against the money line in his last 4 home starts versus the Nationals.

 

Phillies Gathering Some Momentum
The Phillies enter the weekend series versus the Nationals coming off a 4-game road sweep over the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers. Unfortunately, prior to the series versus the Brewers they had lost 9 of their previous 10, and 13 of the last 16-games. Philadelphia has pretty much held serve on the road this season going a respectable 23-24, but has inexplicably struggled at home with a 18-27 record at Citizen’s Bank Park. The Phillies are hitting just .231 as a team in a very hitter friendly home ball park.

 

Nationals Primed to Surge
The Nationals entered this weekend series on top of the NL East standings with a slim half of a game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Washington has gone 14-10 versus the money line this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, and has hit a robust .280 as a team versus southpaw starters in 2014. The Nationals have gone an extremely profitable 51-23 against the money line in their last 74-games as a road favorite. They’ve also gone a terrific 58-27 in their last 85-games versus an opponent with a losing record.

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Final Analysis
The Phillies will get a dose of reality today having to face a starting pitcher that’s absolutely dominated them in recent years. Steven Strasburg has pitched below his standards so far this season, but still has been a lot better than his record may indicate. This favorable matchup will be just what the sports pick doctor ordered for the Nationals prized possession.

Free MLB Pick: Washington -120 over Philadelphia

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