MLB Odds Set Low Total for Greinke-Bumgarner Matchup: Betting Value or Sportsbook Trap?

Darin Zank

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 1:37 PM GMT

Runs might be hard to come by when Zack Greinke take on Madison Bumgarner & the Giants Tuesday night. But can we bet the UNDER on one of the lowest totals we've seen all season?

Giants-Dodgers Tuesday Odds
As of this writing the best MLB odds we could find on LA and Zack Greinke was the -117 offered at Pinnacle, while San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner could be found getting +116 at BookMaker. Also, most of our MLB odds board listed a total on tonight's game of six runs, with a couple of 5.5's out there, too, which is as low as we've ever seen for a MLB game.

Who do they think is playing, the Kings and Sharks?

 

The Situation
The Dodgers grabbed Game 1 of this three-game series Monday night 5-4 on an Adrian Gonzalez base hit in the bottom of the 14th inning. So LA has won five of its last six games, while San Francisco has lost three in a row.

Big-picture, the victory bumps the Dodgers' (73-57) lead in the NL West to 4.5 games over the second-place Giants (69-62). San Francisco also now trails the Cubs by 5.5 games in the race for the second National League wild-card spot.

The Giants lead this season rivalry nine games to four, with the totals splitting 6-6-1.

 

Tuesday's Twirlers
Greinke (14-3, 1.61), by our strict standards, is 22-for-26 on quality starts this season, working on a run of four in a row. Last Thursday he tossed seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball against Cincinnati, with nine strikeouts, and over his last four starts he's allowed just four runs over 27 innings. For the season Greinke has allowed 121 hits through 179 innings, walked 31 and struck out 164, for a strikeouts/walks ratio of better than 5/1. In our book anything better than 3/1 is great.

Los Angeles is 18-8 in Greinke's starts, with the UNDERS going 15-11.

Since the beginning of last season Greinke has started six times against San Francisco, allowing nine runs over 40 innings; the Dodgers won all six of those games, while thanks to some great run support five of those games played OVER.

Bumgarner (16-6, 2.97) is 15-for-26 on quality starts, and four for his last five. Last Thursday he stymied the Cubs to the tune of one run through six innings, with 12 strikeouts, and over his last five starts he's held opponents to just six runs through 37 2/3 innings. On the season Bumsie has allowed 150 hits through 176 innings, walked 30 and whiffed 192 for a K/BB ratio of better than 6/1.

The Giants are 17-9 in Bumgarner's starts, with the OVERS going 13-11.

Bumgarner has started three times already this season against Los Angeles, allowing just three runs through 20 2/3 innings; Frisco won all three of those games, with the UNDERS going 3-0.

Going back to last season the Giants are 6-2 in Bumsie's last eight starts against the Dodgers.

 

Tuesday's Batting Splits
San Francisco ranks second in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .326 team on-base percentage, and 10th with a .413 team slugging percentage.

On the other hand Los Angeles ranks third against left-handed pitching with a .342 team OBP and fifth with a .421 team SP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 38-26 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season, even though they're only averaging 7.7 runs per. As usual oddsmakers have been posting some low totals on LA home games.

 

Injury Update
San Francisco is playing without OF Hunter Pence, who's on the DL for the third time this season. The Giants are 34-18 with Pence this season, 35-44 without him. 'Nuff said.

On the other side of the scorecard Los Angeles OF Yasiel Puig and IF Howie Kendrick are both on the DL with bad hamstrings.

 

Giants-Dodgers Tuesday Free Picks
The last time these two starting pitchers faced each other came back in September of last season, a 4-2 Los Angeles victory. We expect a very similar outcome Tuesday night. Also, Greinke and Bumgarner may go a long way tonight, considering the bullpens had to throw a combined 16 innings Monday night. And the longer these two go, the better the chance of an UNDER.

MLB Picks: Dodgers (-115) & 'UNDER' (-115) at Pinnacle