The MLB odds say the St. Louis Cardinals are the most likely National League team to win the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers might have something to say about that.
Jason's 2015 record as of August 27: 36-29, plus-7.18 units ML; 0-3, minus-3.30 units Total
Remember when the National League was all that? Apparently people these days like the designated hitter, and the New York Yankees. Never mind that four of the last five World Series champions have come from the senior circuit. And according to the fine folks at Baseball Prospectus, it's an NL team that has the best chance of winning it again as we go to press.
That's not what the MLB odds say, though. As we did with the American League, let's run down the Top 5 NL teams on BP's World Series Win Percentage list, and see where the betting market is out of sync with the advanced stats.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (14.8 percent)
Surprise! The Dodgers (68-56, –14.73 units) have been one of the worst baseball picks in the majors this year, but they've got value at +1000 on the World Series futures market at Bovada. That works out to a 9.09-percent chance of winning in the eyes of the marketplace. Not bad for a team that added Mat Latos and Alex Wood to the starting rotation at the trade deadline.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (10.4 percent)
Apparently BP doesn't think quite as highly of the Cardinals (80-45, +24.77 units), despite them owning the best record in baseball. But the betting market thinks the Cards have the best chance of any National League team to win the World Series at +650 (13.33 percent). No betting value here, even after St. Louis beefed up its bullpen at the deadline with Steve Cishek and Jonathan Broxton.
3. New York Mets (8.8 percent)
New York's B-Team is back in the spotlight after getting aggro at the deadline and bringing in Yoenis Cespedes – a move that didn't make a lot of sense at first, but Cespedes (.928 OPS) has done quite well with his new club. The Mets (69-56, +11.88 units) have opened up a nice lead in the NL West; however, at +800, they've got zero value at an implied World Series title probability of 11.11 percent.
4. Chicago Cubs (6.2 percent)
The Cubs (73-51, +11.91 units) are back! They're in third place in the NL Central, but they're in a Wild Card spot at the moment, and they've got a couple of new arms in Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter. Sadly, at +1100 (8.33 percent), the Cubs are no good for our MLB picks. As the Cubs usually are.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (5.6 percent)
We're getting a bit closer with the Pirates (75-49, +16.99 units) at +1100, but they're still not paying out as much as BP's World Series projections think they “should.” Pittsburgh didn't do much at the trade deadline, and it's still Pittsburgh, so we thought they'd be carrying longer odds at this point. Oh well. At least we've got the Dodgers.