MLB Odds Makers Overvalue Wilson, Setting Astros-Angels Total Low: Expect High Score

Charles Stark

Tuesday, June 23, 2015 11:57 AM GMT

Today for our total MLB pick we are backing the over when the Astros take on the Angels. Right now I think this total is set little bit too low with this pitching matchup and two decent offenses.

Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with this game at 7.5 for the total. Not only do I think this total is a little bit low but also you can get it on some pretty good plus money line at some books. Right now at Pinnacle sports book you can get over the total of 7.5 at +108, and for me those are pretty good odds on a game in which we are looking like a final of more like 6-3.

 

Pitchers
CJ Wilson takes the mound for the Los Angeles Angels and comes in with a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Recently he has been absolutely lights out but I don't think that trend will continue today. In his last two starts he is only allowed one earned run in 15 innings pitched, and that was against two decent hitting teams in Oakland and Arizona. Prior to those two starts he allowed 11 runs in 13 innings. So although he has pitched well in his last two I think the Astros have enough offense to put up some runs against him today. For the Astros Collin McHugh takes the mound with a 5.04 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Actually his away numbers are pretty decent, but he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts over nine innings. In one of those start against the Mariners he allowed eight earned runs in just three innings. Like Wilson against the Astros, the Angels could do some damage against him today.

Must Read: Charles also previews tonight's Reds vs. Pirates

Batter Up
The Angels have been hot and cold this season. In four of their last games prior to Monday's they scored three runs in their two losses and 19 runs in their two wins. They are a better hitting team at home so they should have some success today. For example, they bat .237 on the road and .247 at home. As for on base plus slugging, .674 on the road and .701 at home. The Astros have been surprisingly one of the better hitting teams in the league this year and their numbers don't change a whole lot from at home or on the road. They are ranked seventh in the league and on base plus slugging percentage, seventh in runs scored per game, and fifth in total bases per game. The Astros are also ranked third in the American League in slugging against left-handers at .419.

With Wilson pitching so strongly recently it makes sense this number is as low as it is. But I look for both the Astros and the Angels to have good plate appearances today and get this total well over the number, back the over with confidence.

MLB Pick: Over at Pinnacle