MLB Odds: Chatwood, Lester Clash in Rockies-Cubs Opener at Wrigley

Jon Lester

Thursday, June 8, 2017 12:56 PM GMT

Jon Lester and the Cubs host Tyler Chatwood and the red-hot Rockies in the opener of four-game weekend series Thursday night (8:05 ET). Chicago’s recent record as home chalk behind the southpaw is a good bet.

Colorado Rockies (38-23)

The Rockies head to Wrigley Field for a four-game series vs. the Cubs on Thursday in a potential NL playoff preview. Manager Bud Black’s club comes in hot, winners of four straight after taking two against the Indians in Colorado. In this stretch, the Rockies are outscoring opponents 32-6. They have accumulated a greater margin of victory in a four-game span just three times over the last decade.

Tyler Chatwood takes the pill for Black in the opener. The hard-throwing right-hander is 5-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 12 starts. Chatwood owns one of the most extreme home/away splits of any pitcher in MLB. In his career, he is 18-25 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, Chatwood is 19-13 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP lifetime. Coors Field is the friendliest hitters’ park in the bigs, but these numbers defy explanation.

Chatwood earned a win in his only career start at Wrigley in April 2016 in a 2-0 victory. He allowed 2 hits, 1 walk and 7 strikeouts in 7.0 innings. In his career, the Rockies are 22-17 SU away from Coors behind Chatwood, returning 36 percent profit at +149 average odds. He gives up just 3.44 runs per game in this stretch, a tiny number for a usually subpar Rockies staff.

Colorado is the second most profitable team on the road this season behind the Astros. Backers have returned 40 percent profit at +114 average odds. The team is 21-10 overall. It is 13-6 as a road dog.

 

Chicago Cubs (30-28)

The Cubs' winning percentage since the start of last season is 61.0 percent, better than any other team in MLB. The Rockies are one of three teams (Mets, Padres) in this span Chicago has faced more than five times in which it owns a losing record against. Head-to-head, the Cubs are 3-6 SU, losing each of the three series overall.

Jon Lester looks to get the Cubs off to good start this time around. The four-time All-Star is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA through 12 outings this season. Like Chatwood, the home/away splits for Lester, at least for this year, are eye-opening. In seven Wrigley appearances, the southpaw is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA. In five road starts, Lester is 0-3 with a whopping 7.11 ERA.

Lester is 1-2 with a 1.69 ERA in three career starts against Colorado. Two of the outings occurred in a Cubs uniform. The Rockies' current roster is hitting .238 (19-for-80) as a group with six doubles and three home runs vs. Lester.

The Cubs are 20-3 SU in Lester’s last 23 starts as home chalk. Two of the defeats have come this season. Lester and the bullpen yield 2.43 runs on 6.65 hits per game in this span.

 

Final Analysis

Rockies pitchers are keeping the team competitive in nearly every game this season, going toe-to-toe with some of the majors' elite staffs. As an underdog greater than +125 odds, the 'under' is 10-1 with Colorado allowing 3.73 runs per game. Offense typically goes missing in this situation, however, crossing the plate just 2.09 times per game. Lester should work deep in the contest, while Chatwood’s unexplainable solid road outings continue. Pick 'under' for the contest with the total to be posted a few hours before game-time as is typical at Wrigley.

Free MLB Pick: 'Under'Best Line Offered: BetOnline