MLB Odds for Dodgers vs. Cardinals a Trap! Books Set Early Total Low to Trigger Public Action

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 7, 2015 1:28 PM GMT

Two pitchers with fantastic stats go at it in the weekend finale at Dodger Stadium, and our MLB handicapper believes the time is right to fade the early public action.

Betting Preview for Cardinals vs. Dodgers
The St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers finish up their 4 game series in primetime on Sunday night, with the Cardinals having won two of the first three games. Clayton Kershaw absolutely dominated the Cards on Saturday night, pitching 8 innings of one hit ball while striking out eleven batters. The Dodgers had seven hits on the night and were able to string enough of them together to plate two runs in the seventh inning, going on to win the game 2-0. With Zack Greinke on the mound Sunday night for the Dodgers the money line opened up with them as heavy favorites on 5Dimes at -165. With Cardinal pitcher Lance Lynn no slouch either with a 3.05 ERA, the MLB odds O/U total opened at 6 at the same book. The weather is going to be in the low 80’s F and awesome tomorrow night – should be a lovely night for the Dodger faithful to show up in the 3rd inning and leave by the 7th.

 

Sunday's Pitching Matchup: Greinke vs. Lynn
Zach Greinke disappointed in his last start, as I had trusted him to keep a cap on things in Colorado to get us an under. Instead, he gave up ten hits and five runs over 6 IP, although he took a no decision as the Dodgers won the game 9-8. It was the fifth game in a row that Greinke wasn’t able to garner a winning decision, with one loss and four no decisions in that span. Even with that performance in Colorado, Greinke’s numbers are off the charts: 5-1, 1.97 ERA, 60/15 K/BB ratio, and an incredible 0.95 WHIP. He’s been tough on both righties and lefties this year and his splits confirm it with a .214 BAA against LH batters and a .200 BAA against RH batters this year. I’m considering the Colorado start an aberration in what has been an excellent 2015 campaign so far for Greinke.

Lance Lynn has a 3.03 ERA this year but it would be much better if he only pitched at home. Lynn has a very strong home/away split so far and most of his blowup games have been on the road. Lynn is carrying a 2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .238 BAA at home and a 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 270 BAA on the road. He got absolutely lit up his last time in Dodger Stadium in 2014, giving up 6 ER in 2 IP. Lynn is a fastball specialist; as well he should be as he has thrown the pitch 81.5% of the time this year. Looking back at his blowup starts he didn’t lose his control as far as walks but was wild within the strike zone, grooving meatballs to get demolished by opposing batters. His numbers this year are very close to his career norms, so like Greinke’s start in Colorado, it seems like those starts can be treated like an aberration.

 

Total Runs Prediction
Pretty interesting line action on this one as the books opened the O/U total at 6 which immediately got hammered on the over. The O/U line has already moved to 6.5 at 5Dimes where I expect it to stay. I’m firmly against the public on this one as I believe the books set that opening line on the even number to get early money on the over side. This should be a great pitching matchup and runs will be at a premium. Three runs should be enough to win this game, which is why I’m taking under 6.5 runs as my Sunday MLB pick.

MLB Picks: Under 6.5 -105 at BetOnline