Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Tuesday.
There could be a nice upset in store in the Queen City Tuesday night when Trevor Cahill and the Arizona Diamondbacks (46-60, 25-27 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Mike Leake and the Cincinnati Reds (52-53, 28-24 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.
The posted money line at Bet365 has Arizona as a decided road underdog for this contest at current odds of +131.
There’s No Place Like…the Road?
The Diamondbacks no longer have the worst record in the Major Leagues like they had earlier this season, nor do they even have the worst record in the National League as they are now 2½ games ahead of the Colorado Rockies in the NL West for that “honor.” In fact, Arizona has actually been a profitable MLB pick on the road this year where the Snakes are 25-27 despite being underdogs almost every time, compared to a disastrous 21-33 at home in Phoenix.
The Reds recovered from a slow start this season to make a charge in the NL Central until about two weeks ago, but then just as suddenly Cincinnati lost its momentum and has gone 1-9 over the last 10 games after losing the series opener here 2-1 in 15 innings last night, and the Reds have now dropped back to one game under .500 in fourth place, six games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Cahill Re-Enters Rotation
Cahill was terrible in four starts for the Diamondbacks early in the season, which prompted his demotion to the bullpen. He proceeded to make 15 mostly effective relief appearances and post a 3.04 RA out of the pen with 27 strikeouts vs. 12 walks before Arizona decided to put him back in the rotation on July 18th, and he has been better in two starts since then allowing exactly three earned runs on each occasion.
Cahill did pitch well in his only career start vs. the Reds, which came here at Great American Ball Park last season when he allowed just one run on four hits in seven innings with seven strikeouts, and he is now facing a Cincinnati lineup beset by injuries with a couple of stars in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips on the Disabled List. It is also worth mentioning that Cahill has the support of a hot Arizona bullpen that has a 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last 10 games.
Leake Going off Form
Leake comes off of the best season of his Major League career last year when he finished 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA, and he was off to another good start this season that still leaves him with a 3.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at this very moment despite a 7-9 record, but Leake has gone decidedly off of his good form as of late.
Leake has allowed exactly four earned runs in each of his last three starts vs. the Yankees, Brewers and Pirates respectively while posting an unattractive 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over those starts, most recently being touched up for 11 hits in six innings in Milwaukee last Wednesday.
Leake has not fared particularly well vs. the Diamondbacks over the years either despite a career 3-0 record against them in six starts as he has a 5.84 ERA over those outings, and the Arizona offense has been managing to score runs as of last averaging 4.90 of them per game over the last 10 contests.
Reds Ripe for Upset
Unfortunately for the depleted Reds, that figure is nearly triple the woeful 1.70 runs they are averaging during the same 10-game span, making the 1-9 record in that time understandable. The Reds are batting an atrocious .164 vs. right-handers during this period, which could very well assist Cahill as he continues his comeback bid in the starting rotation. The Reds produced just six hits in the 15-inning loss last night.
Add this all up and Cincinnati seems ripe for an upset as it waits for all of its walking wounded to return to action, so we recommend a play on the Snakes from Arizona at a nice road underdog value price on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +131