MLB Odds: Cash A Pair Of Run Line Picks At Underdog Prices

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 2, 2016 2:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 2, 2016 2:00 PM UTC

Our MLB professional analyst cashed in with both of his wagers on Friday. He’s now a fantastic 32-24 (57%/+1600)) with his last 56 picks at money line underdog prices.

Tigers (Verlander) vs. Rays (Snell) 4:10 PM ET
Detroit has gone 8-3 in their last eleven and is currently riding a four game win streak. During those last four games, they’ve scored a combined 37 runs, and also pounded out 49 hits.

Blake Snell has displayed terrible form over his last three starts, evidenced by a mammoth 2.15 WHIP during those outings. If Snell has to count on his bullpen today he’ll certainly be on pins and needles. The Rays relievers have compiled a cumulative 10.87 ERA and 2.25 WHIP over their last seven games.

By virtue of their 10-2 loss to the Tigers on Friday, Tampa Bay is now a dismal 2-14 over its last 16 games. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 22-37 (.372) versus right-handed starting pitchers this year, and 11-27 (.289) against teams with a winning record.

Current MLB Odds at Heritage has Detroit as a -115 money line favorite. Tampa Bay has a team OBP of .303 heading into today. Detroit starting pitcher Jason Verlander has posted a 1.13 WHIP during 16 starts in 2016. The combinations of these factors, and Blake Snell’s previously mentioned WHIP over his last three starts, qualifies this matchup for an extremely profitable MLB betting angle.

Any American League road money line favorite of -110 or greater (Tigers) with a starting pitcher (Verlander) with a WHIP of 1.30 or better, versus an opponents with a team OBP of .325 or less, and their starting pitcher (Snell) has a WHIP of 2.00 or more over his last three starts, resulted in those road teams going 38-8 during the past five seasons. The road teams also had a significant +2.7 run per game differential in those 46 outings.

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Free MLB Pick:  Tigers -1.5 +144
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage


Royals (Duffy) vs. Phillies (Nola) 5:50 PM ET
Daniel Duffy has compiled a more than respectable 3.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP during nine starts this year. He has an even better 2.11 ERA and 1.08 in four outings on the road. The Royals bullpen has been superb during the first half of 2016, posting a sparkling 2.76 ERA as a staff.

Aaron Nola has been horrible over his last four starts. During that time, Nola has a massive 15.23 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. He doesn’t figure to get much help from his bullpen. Philadelphia relief pitchers have combined for a lofty 5.04 ERA over their previous seven games. The Phillies have been offensively anemic at home this year, averaging 2.7 runs scored per game, and they also possess a brutal .286 team OBP at Citizens Bank Park.

I look for the Royals to bounce back from a disappointing 4-3 loss to Philadelphia last night, and win by a decisive margin. One of my Saturday MLB Picks will reflect that prediction.

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Free MLB Pick:  Royals -1.5 +135 
Best Line Offered:  at Bookmaker

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